The midterms are less than a week away, and while Republicans trail in the polls, the outcome will come down to turnout.
That was the message Tuesday from Turning Point USA’s Andrew Kolvet, who said the organization’s ground game is focused on getting enough Republicans to the polls to push them over the finish line. President Trump’s effort to make the midterms a referendum on himself, Kolvet argued, gives his supporters a powerful reason to vote. And according to what TPUSA is seeing on the ground in Arizona, Texas and Michigan, Republicans are showing up in droves for early voting, while Democrats have yet to solve their enthusiasm problem.
In presidential elections 160 million ballots are cast. In a midterm, only ~100 million. This is a base turnout operation. No one has a connection with his base like President Trump - not even Obama - and we are already seeing signs that his barnstorming the country is energizing Republicans. Data points that currently are holding true: Ground game works. We are chasing ballots @TPAction and banking low props. We have lots of high props outstanding - we’re not seeing cannibalization through early vote Indies and youth vote is significantly lower than modeled. This can change, but it hasn’t yet We are seeing rurals and the base surging in key races (with GA and NC currently lagging) We can defy the polls. Vote!! @JesseBWatters
— Andrew Kolvet (@AndrewKolvet) October 28, 2026
"Well, you know, the president, as he just showed in that clip, he's still got his fastball, Jesse," Kolvet said. "And I think one of the smartest things that he's done during this election is to make it about him. You know, in a presidential year, you get about 160 million people that turn out to vote. In a midterm, you get about 100 million. That means that both sides have more than enough votes to get it over the finish line. And so when he's going out there barnstorming the country, what he's doing is he's connecting with his base. And there is still nobody that has that connection like Trump does with his base."
I was just texting with my contacts in Texas, Jesse. They are loving what they're seeing the last couple of days. The rurals are getting out. The Bible Belt communities are getting out. They can't stand Talarico. They don't trust him. And so we're going to see a late surge there. And we're seeing that also in Arizona. I will tell you, we're on the ground in Arizona. You mentioned the Indians are not coming out. You mentioned that the youth vote is depressed. And that's an enthusiasm problem that the Democrats haven't solved yet. So, yeah, maybe they've soured a little bit on this policy or the Iran war. But guess what? They're not rushing to the left either. So the ground game is working. The early votes are coming in. And we like where we stand.
Kolvet also pushed back on claims that Trump’s appeal for supporters to vote as though he were on the ballot could be a double-edged sword, energizing Democrats to vote against the president as much as it motivates Republicans to support him. Based on TPUSA’s get-out-the-vote efforts in states including Arizona, Texas and Michigan, Kolvet said, the organization simply isn’t seeing a matching surge in Democratic enthusiasm.
"What we're seeing is he's getting his base out," Kolvet said. "And that is what this exercise is. It's a base turnout operation."
Republicans are down in the polls, and historical precedent isn’t on our side either. There are good reasons to question those numbers, especially after three polling firms reportedly admitted to fabricating data for a “social experiment.” But whether you trust the polls or not, they can still demoralize the Republican base.
Polling, however, is one thing; turnout is another. The race won’t be decided by how many Republicans expect to lose, but by how many refuse to stay home. And no one gets that base to the polls like President Trump.