The upcoming mid-term elections will be an uphill battle for Republicans. As unappealing as Democrats are, the composite net negative for Republicans at Real Clear Politics this week is -17. Conventional wisdom states that the party that holds the White House usually loses the Congress in the midterms. Republicans surely loved that trend in the Obama years; now, it means major peril for the GOP. And right now, the biggest threat comes in an area where we usually torch Democrats: gas prices.
Simply put, current high prices at the pump are killing us. According to a recent CNN poll, more disapprove of President Trump (72 percent) on inflation than Biden or even Jimmy Carter at this time in their respective presidencies. Meanwhile, Trump’s disapproval on the price of gas (76 percent) is higher than Joe Biden's at any time in his presidency (72 percent).
Now, if people are being honest, they’ll see that finally dealing with the nightmarish Iranian government has to happen. In the long-term, the human race will be better off—and gas prices lower— if a universally despised regime can no longer hold the world hostage because of a 20-mile-long geographic fluke. But that doesn’t help voters who can’t see past next week, next month, or the next six months.
There is one thing that Republicans can do now to ease gas-station sticker shock: reduce requirements to either blend loads of ethanol into the nation’s gas supply (known as renewable volume obligations, or RVOs), or buy ethanol credits (RINs). Both could be done while still complying with the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), which is itself ripe for an overhaul or repeal.
Created under the 2005 Energy Policy Act, the RFS is a big-government monstrosity. It is supposed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, boost Iowa’s economy, and reduce reliance on imported oil. But scientists and advocates who fret about greenhouse gas emissions say it actually worsens the problem. Under President Trump, the USA is now the world’s top exporter of oil and gas, and the importance of the RFS in Iowa, both economically and politically, is overstated.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), the most anti-RFS candidate in presidential political history, won the Iowa caucuses in 2016. And even though Biden was the most pro-RFS president in my lifetime, he still lost Iowa by eight points in 2020 and performed terribly in their caucuses earlier that year. Yet we’re supposed to believe there’s a good case for setting high RVOs—and some Members of Congress are even pushing to allow the year-round sale of E15, gasoline that is 15 percent ethanol. While Republicans can ignore the environmental considerations, here’s what we dare not: The RFS is a hidden tax on energy at a time when Americans need relief.
According to a recent study by the Energy Policy Research Foundation, the RFS already adds about $0.20 per gallon at the pump. Additional requirements— unless backed out— would add another $0.27. Together, this would amount to an average hidden cost of $183.62 per capita annually. So the average a US family of four pays an estimated $734 a year in hidden RFS costs.
But worse yet, the RFS hits Republicans hardest, while letting Zohran Mamdani fan city-dwelling DSA soy boys off the hook. Rural Americans drive approximately 30 percent more annual miles than urban Americans. And of the 15 highest per-capita RFS cost states, 13 are Republican-held or Republican-leaning. For example, a family of four in Alabama pays an estimated $1,092 a year in hidden RFS costs—some “thank you” to the Yellowhammer State for its decades of supporting the party.
But these costs are also hurting swing voters in key Senate race states: The RFS jacks up the cost of gas by over $800 a year for families of four in Texas, Georgia, and Maine. If those all wind up blue, chances are that Chuck Schumer becomes Majority Leader again, and impeachment proceedings start next January.
President Trump needs to slash the RVOs and do it before it’s too late. He and Republican leaders in Congress also need to say “no dice” to E15. While we all know farmers in Iowa are hurting, there are better ways to benefit them across the board—whether they grow corn or soybeans, or raise hogs. Slashing red tape and boosting exports will do much more for all farmers and bring out the brutal numbers the President is seeing even among Republicans due to gas prices—and Trump can do both, easily.
The RFS is another stealth swamp tax on the American people, plain and simple. The GOP has a chance to ditch it right now while helping us in an upcoming mid-term that is winnable—and ditch it we must.