Ordered chaos is the way the president wins.
I have to admit that I don’t remember much from my youth. I know that I had loving and wonderful parents who did everything for me, and that I grew up in a beautiful suburb of Chicago. One memory that does stick has me going to see the Harlem Globetrotters when they performed at Northwestern’s basketball arena in nearby Evanston. Meadowlark Lemon and his crew were amazing in routing the refs and the Washington Generals. Their method was “razzle-dazzle,” and they made their opponents confused and their fans thrilled. The expression “razzle-dazzle” already appeared in the 1890 Oxford Dictionary and was understood to mean “overwhelming or deceiving” someone. Donald Trump is the modern king of razzle-dazzle.
If you were to ask someone what the state of affairs is right now with Iran, he would be hard-pressed to give you a clear answer. On the one hand, the war is not over, and officially, there is a ceasefire. On the other hand, the president often says that the two sides are close to an agreement and that the war could be over soon. There is a ceasefire, but the U.S. bombed Iran for the latter’s attempts to attack two U.S. destroyers in the Straits of Hormuz. On a daily basis, the president and his secretaries of state and war say contradictory things. The Secretary of State said that Operation Epic Fury was over. Now, did he do so for the benefit of Congress so as to avoid a need for congressional authorization for war? Or did he say it for the Iranians so that they would think that major fighting is over? When Donald Trump says that they are close to an agreement that would remove enriched uranium from Iran, with whom is he in agreement? The ostensible political side? The possibly dead Mullah Jr.? The IRGC honchos? Or the guy who sells falafel in downtown Tehran?
By making contradictory statements on a daily or nearly hourly basis, Donald Trump is confusing our enemy and making their path forward that much harder. Let’s look at the “we’re so close to a deal” statements by the president. Virtually every time the president says as much, some statement comes from the Iranian FARS news agency that it is not true and that Iran will never give up its “right” to enrich uranium. The IRGC guys probably think that the remaining political echelon is negotiating behind their backs and promising things that, in their minds, are verboten. Now the Iranians necessarily fall into camps. Each will claim authority and legitimacy from the late ayatollah if he was still around. The more polarized the Iranians are, the less effective their command and control. The foot soldiers don’t know who’s calling the shots or who might give them a paycheck. An Iranian delegation went to China and also fired on a Chinese ship. I can hear the Globetrotters’ theme song in my head.
Let’s look at the events of Thursday. Iranian small boats and other weapons tried unsuccessfully to attack the American ships. The U.S. responded by bombing Iranian military facilities. Now let the finger-pointing begin. Who ordered the attack on the far superior American forces? And by what authority? How much damage was caused by the reprisal bombing, and who will take responsibility for the casualties and destruction? Donald Trump is atomizing the Iranian leadership, where people will no longer trust one another and will blame each other for any setback, including the local currency being worth less than the paper on which it is printed. What seems like chaos and lack of coordination in Washington is actually a ballet of confusing and weakening an evil enemy. All the while Donald Trump talks of some type of agreement being hammered out, U.S. transport planes bring more military gear into the theater, and U.S. tankers are airborne 24/7 from the Mediterranean to the Straits of Hormuz.
And it is not only the Iranians who are confused. It is said that the Saudis were not happy with the U.S. program to escort ships through the Straits; in response, they denied and later reinstated U.S. access to their facilities and airspace. The Israelis also appear confused, with a healthy debate (according to Amit Segal) at the top echelons of Israeli security as to the need to remove enriched uranium or simply rely on the massive destruction of existing infrastructure. Bibi Netanyahu periodically says that he and Donald Trump are in complete coordination, while Israel appears surprised by the U.S. and Iran making some deal. How do you say razzle-dazzle in Hebrew?
Wars may be fought with weapons, but they are often won with good strategy. Many have said that the code-breaking that occurred during World War II at Bletchley Park may have shaved a year or two from the conflict. The U.S. setting up a fake “First United States Army Group” under the leadership of General Patton completely confused the Nazis as to the future landing location in France. Looking at Rommel, the German High Command could not conceive of an Allied attack that did not include America’s best fighting general. Instead, America’s best organizational general—Dwight Eisenhower—was the man of the moment, while Patton’s position away from the Normandy preparations kept the Germans clueless as to the actual Operation Overlord plans.
So will the fighting continue? It’s a very hard thing to say that one wants the attacks against Iran to start up again in earnest. A return to fighting all but guarantees more Iranian missiles coming this way. People may die or be injured. So, on the one hand, most Israelis—and Gulf residents—want the job done. Finish off the mullahs and the IRGC and let the Iranian people make their future. On the other hand, attacks will probably not be one-way, and every night when I charge my phone, I wonder if it will once again go off at 3 AM. I have already started my strategic clothing positioning so as to get from bed to bunker in less than six minutes.
While Donald Trump often seems to be the center of chaos, he is actually running a very tight ship, one directed toward getting what he wants. The Iranians don’t know what’s going on with the Americans, with deadlines changing and stated goals also moving like the sands of the local deserts. The U.S. started “Project Freedom” to move ships through the Straits. Then it stopped. So the Iranians attacked. And then they got whacked for attacking. So is the U.S. weak? Is she strong? Just as Israel and the U.S. used the Iranian belief of no war soon to gather their top people in one room at the very beginning of the war, Donald Trump is not letting on to his plans. Negotiate and strangle their economic life with no oil moving. Was the recent sighting of an oil slick near Kharg Island a sign of too-full oil facilities? Do the Iranians think that Donald Trump is bluffing on their nuclear future? One day he says that they can never enrich; the next day, it’s a 15-year moratorium with limited enrichment. So which is it? By speaking frequently and giving different answers via various administration officials, the president is giving the IRGC and civilian leadership indigestion.
Should the kinetic war begin again, my guess is that it will be short and brutal. Donald Trump gave the mullahs and IRGC generals every opportunity to make a deal on his terms and stay in power. They’re used to dealing with terrified world leaders in the Gulf and Europe. It’s a shame that the Globetrotters didn’t play in Tehran; maybe the current leadership would understand what’s about to happen to them.