No, the midterms will not turn on the issue of "affordability." If affordability truly were decisive, Republicans would easily retain the House and the Senate.
Consider the economic backdrop. Gas prices are at a five-year low, with gas stations in several states selling a gallon of regular for under $2. Several times since Trump's reelection, the stock market indexes have recorded all-time highs. GDP growth hit 4.3% in the third quarter of 2025. Wage growth is exceeding inflation, but as always, some benefit more than others. Inflation itself is under 3% and trending lower. Egg prices have fallen dramatically. Mortgage rates have declined to the lowest level in three years. Trillions of dollars in foreign investment commitments have been announced. The effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill -- no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, tax relief for seniors on Social Security and immediate expensing of business equipment purchases -- have barely begun to register. All of this suggests, despite the headlines of despair, that the economy is poised to take off.
If voters were focused primarily on affordability, these conditions would be politically devastating for Democrats.
But that's not what this election is about.
The midterms will turn on one question only: Is Trump hatred -- among Democrats, Hollywood, much of the media and academia -- so deeply rooted that President Donald Trump gets credit for nothing?
Look at the record. He closed the southern border in a matter of weeks without new congressional legislation. That's an incredible accomplishment. More on this later.
Trump negotiated the release of Israeli hostages and the return of their remains from Gaza. That's a big deal. He pressured European allies to shoulder more of the financial burden for Ukraine's war against Russia. Another big deal. He significantly degraded Iran's nuclear capacity. He took decisive action against Venezuela's Maduro regime -- something Democrats once loudly demanded. He expanded school-choice options that disproportionately benefit Black and brown students trapped in failing K-12 urban schools.
He forced NATO allies to increase defense spending after years of freeloading. He applied sustained pressure on Iran's regime at a moment when internal instability has never been higher since the beginning of the "Islamic Republic" in 1979. He pressured universities to better protect Jewish students and to end illegal race-based DEI policies. And all of this in less than a full year.
On immigration enforcement, Trump has deported roughly 1.5 million illegal aliens -- many with violent criminal records. Deportations under Trump in both terms remain below the 3.5 million deportations carried out under former President Barack Obama.
There have been cases in which U.S. citizens were mistakenly detained or arrested by ICE, sometimes for minutes, hours or a few days. According to ProPublica, the number is "more than 170." Out of roughly 1.5 million deportations under Trump, that comes to 0.0113%, or just over one hundredth of 1%. Considering that former President Joe Biden let in an estimated 10 million to 15 million aliens, the mass deportation initiated under Trump is required to undo just some of Biden's intentional policy.
Mistakes during deportation by ICE are inevitable -- but in the context of reversing years of mass illegal entry, they are statistically rare. If sanctuary cities and states truly wanted to reduce such errors, they would allow ICE to operate inside jails and prisons rather than forcing arrests to occur in public spaces.
As to Iran, I'm old enough to remember when the political left claimed to care about the oppression and subjugation of women -- and rooted openly for their possible liberation.
All of this brings us back to the real issue.
Trump Derangement Syndrome is real. It is deep. And it has metastasized, not just nationally but globally.
Roughly half the country views Trump with the Jimmy Kimmel mindset. Can anyone seriously imagine Kimmel ever saying, "You know, on this issue, Trump deserves some credit," or "On that issue, maybe I was wrong"?
Of course not. And that's the point.
The midterms won't hinge on prices at the pump or at the grocery store. They will hinge on whether millions of voters can acknowledge reality -- or whether their animus toward Trump is so absolute that no achievement, no success and no improvement in people's lives really matter.
That, not "affordability," is the question before the country.
Larry Elder is a bestselling author and nationally syndicated radio talk-show host. To find out more about Larry Elder, or become an "Elderado," visit www.LarryElder.com. Follow Larry on X @larryelder.