Nationwide protests have swept Iran for 12 days now and analysts agree that this movement is fundamentally different than previous cost-of-living or women’s rights-driven protests. According to the latest reporting, over 111 cities in Iran are rising up against the brutal Islamic regime of Ayatollah Khamenei after 47 years of oppression under the Islamic Republic and the regime has responded by declaring war on the people. According to multiple outlets and my own on-the-ground sources, the Iranian people are ready for real regime change this time and a significant portion of protesters are supporting a return to Monarchy with the son of the Shah Reza Pahlavi, leading the pro-monarchist movement from abroad. Pahlavi has shown a strong ability to mobilize and lead the Iranian people.
Almost everyone besides the radical left red-green alliance agrees that the end of this terrorist regime in Iran would be a strategic win for the US and Israel and in line with America First foreign policy goals. What is unclear, however, is how far the US should go to intervene in these protests and when. Many anti-Iran voices in the conservative movement have already called for US intervention to assist the unarmed Iranian people in toppling the regime. Latest reports have at least dozens of protesters killed, and videos circulating on social media show that the regime has deployed IRGC assets to put down the massive protests using violence. Throughout the week, President Trump has issued and reiterated strong warnings to the leadership in Iran not to use mass killings to stop the protesters, as they have in the past. But some want him to go further. Below, I will lay out a roadmap for why US intervention should be reserved for the right moment and how Trump and Netanyahu’s rhetoric of support and Persian language social media broadcast into Iran is a significant strategic win and departure from past weak Presidents.
Many people have called on the successful US military and law enforcement intervention in Venezuela as evidence that the US is capable of skillfully removing dictators and they suggest that they want to see a similar operation in Iran. However, these two situations are vastly different, and while the risky operation to remove Maduro from power has so far worked out with strong cooperation from Rodriguez, it has also resulted in an engagement with Venezuela that, according to Trump, could last years. This is simply not something the American people would support in the Middle East. More importantly, removing the Ayatollah in Iran could result in an even worse military dictatorship with the fanatical religious factions of the IRGC seizing power during a chaotic transition period. President Trump has so far pursued a policy that Reza Pahlavi has termed “maximum support” for the Iranian people. Here’s why that matters. Past Presidents such as Obama and Biden pursued policies that strengthened and enriched the Iranian regime, while ignoring and squandering moments to support the people and weaken the regime, such as the “woman life freedom” protests in 2022, which went largely unnoticed by the Biden admin. In contrast, President Trump and PM Netanyahu took strong military action early in Trump’s term last summer and showed the world and the Iranian people that the regime’s façade of strength is far weaker than many people realized. On top of that, the regime has continued to weaken its own domestic position by grossly mismanaging water resources, the economy, and suffering embarrassing defeats of its proxy terror groups all over the world. Most recently, in Venezuela, when Trump took out Maduro and seized shadow oil tankers that ran between Iran, Venezuela, and Russia. Additionally, Trump’s campaign against the Houthis and his pivotal role in ending the war between Hamas and Israel delivered crushing blows to Iran’s ability to project power and terror across the region. This year, President Trump jumped on the opportunity to support the Iranian people on day 6 of the protests with a Truth social post stating, “If Iran shots [sic] and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue. We are locked and loaded and ready to go. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
PM Netanyahu and Israeli Persian social media have also issued strong messages of support to the protesters and worked to combat regime disinformation, which critically killed the $7/month compensation offer from the regime to the people of Iran. In the past, an offer like this may have quelled enough protesters for the movement to lose momentum, but not with President Trump’s promise of support and Israeli media revealing to the Iranian people how much money the Ayatollah has sent abroad to Hamas and Hezbollah fighters. Terrorists in faraway places received thousands of dollars a month individually, while the Iranian people have continued to suffer under crushing inflation. Now, today the regime has reportedly cut off internet access to a majority of the country in an attempt to stop the uprising, but according to Pahlavi, there are assets in place in Iran to provide continued internet access. All of these factors contribute to the conclusion that this movement is revolutionary and has real momentum to possibly overthrow the regime. This is a positive development, but US intervention should still be reserved for the right moment. President Trump also seems to be aware of this strategic calculation.
Iranian protesters and Reza Pahlavi have been working to bring the local police forces over to their side as they take city after city and kick out regime forces. This is a critical development and key to the long-term success of the revolution. If the US intervened too early, as I previously explained, IRGC forces could capitalize on the chaos to seize power. The Iranian regime is deeply embedded, and a limited removal of the top leaders would not make a strategic difference to the US, the way it did in Venezuela, with Rodriguez willing to provide increased cooperation. An untimely US intervention could even result in provoking an attack by the “new” Iranian regime that would be left in place. The people of Iran have a hard road ahead of them to remove every aspect of this brutal regime from their society, which should serve as a warning to freedom-loving societies around the world not to give up their freedoms and rights. According to my on-the-ground sources in Iran, over 100 small towns now have the local police forces at least partially on their side. This means the revolution has some ability to mount armed defense against the regime forces. It also means that the revolution has spread beyond the civilian population, which is a crucial development as the US weighs potential involvement. If the Iranian people can bring the police forces in the major cities onto their side, this would be a signal that increased US or Israeli support would actually have a positive effect and provide strategic benefit to the US and Israel, as there would be a skeleton for a new government to take power, with an actual domestic police force to support it. This will take time, but the Iranian people aren’t going to give up easily. And as the movement progresses, the US and anyone who wants to help the Iranian people should continue providing strong rhetorical support, urging the international media to stop failing at their jobs and cover this historic moment, and combat regime disinformation and show the Iranian people that this regime has nothing left to offer them.
