The recent extraordinary events in Syria beg the question: where is this country going from here?
There is a lot of garbage to be found online. Social media reports abound on how the U.S. and/or Israel and/or other groups engineered Bashar al-Assad’s downfall. The reality is far more mundane than the conspiracy theories would have it. One of our boys spoke to a friend who went to the Dead Sea two weeks ago. While he was floating on the salt-rich waters, a Druze fellow from northern Israel began to speak with him. The Israeli Druze have strong relations with their Syrian brethren and often cross the border. He said that something big was about to happen in Syria but could not say what it would be. And just for reference, AMAN, Israel’s premier intelligence-gathering body, officially stated that it was completely caught off-guard by what happened during 11 days of revolution.
While it may sound cool to say that the CIA or Mossad set events in motion that led to the Assad family fleeing Damascus after 50 years of rule, the facts of the matter would not support such a conclusion. Bashar Al-Assad was a weakened ruler after the Spring Revolution of 13 years ago. He lost control of large parts of his country. Without active Russian, Iranian and Hezbollah support, he could not stay in power. The price for their support was high: the Russians received bases in the Middle East after decades of being shut out. Iran could move endless tons of weapons through Syria to its client Hezbollah. The latter was positioning itself for an October 7th type attack on Israel’s northern border. And thus Alawite Assad and the Shiite terror state and client had a working relationship for over a decade.
As is obvious to all, Assad’s partners are not having a good year. Russia is tied up in Ukraine and cannot spare either troops or weaponry. Iran has been damaged by Israeli attacks, and its air defenses are down. Hezbollah has lost all of its commanders and several thousand fighters. When top Israeli officers and officials are photographed in south Lebanon, it is a sign that the IDF does not fear there being any residual fighters in the area. With Assad’s three main supporters weakened and distracted, the rebel groups apparently saw an opportunity. Spurred on by Turkey, they broke out from their enclaves to rapidly take over major cities and drive Assad from power. Why didn’t the Syrian Army repulse the guerrillas as they had for the past 13 years? It may have been that they were low on ammunition and weapons from Russia and Iran. It may have been that they were caught by surprise, just as Israel was when the Hamas hordes broke through the barrier fence at over 100 locations on October 7th. The army did not fight, it pulled back again and again until it ultimately collapsed.
The rebels are by no means a singular group. By last count, I saw that there were 28 such groups in Syria. Some are large and some are offshoots of ISIS or Al-Qaeda. Some are close to Turkey, while others are sworn foes. It is a true mishmash. If one uses previous revolutions such as the French, Russian and Iranian, as a guide, then Syria’s near-term future is clear. In all three revolutions, various groups worked together to get rid of an existing monarch, whether he be king, Tsar or Shah, and the ruling class. Once that work was finished, they went after each other, with the biggest and/or most cunning parties taking control. Thus, the Bolsheviks. Mensheviks and others could work together to throw out the Tsar and his family; when that was done, then Lenin and his cabal could set their sights on their former comrades. Ditto in France where the guillotine was busier than ever after it was used on Charles XVI. In Iran, the Islamists teamed up with the shopkeepers to force the Shah to leave the country and then Khomeini and his people took care of the shopkeepers—until this very day. The American Revolution was quite unique in that the same people who fought and ousted the British were the same ones who ruled after they took control of the government.
While Israel did not cause the fall of Assad directly, there is no question that the weakening of Hezbollah and Iran contributed to the rapid outcome. Israel, surprisingly, apprised the developing situation and undertook to take care of business. It declared the 50-year old agreement on the Golan Heights null and void and immediately took over the Syrian side of the buffer zone between the two countries. It amazes me that Henry Kissinger’s agreement lasted that long, but Israel was right to claim that the Syrian signatory was no longer around and that Israel had the right to strengthen its border position. It additionally attacked over 300 targets in Syria to destroy the air force, navy, heavy weapons, and weapons research centers. People described the Israel Air Force bases as expressways with planes taking off and landing with no respite. Israel seized the opportunity to significantly downgrade the weapons it might face in the near future, and there was nobody on the other side to prevent her from doing it.
So what will be with Syria? The next few weeks will involve finding and executing Assad’s henchmen and associates. Terrible stories will be heard about torture and murder by agents of the former government. During this time, women and minorities such as the Kurds and Christians will be at heightened risk without protection from the Alawite government that crumbled. After the old guard is gone then the new groups will jockey for control. It’s not impossible that different rebel or terror groups will hold different parts of the country. The Iranians lost their land route for supplying Hezbollah while the Turks may have gained one more route to harm the Kurds. Don’t expect Syria to be a democracy any time soon.
While we enjoy the benefits of Western democracy, much of the world is run by despots. What we have seen in the Arab world is that the removal of Sadaam, Qaddafi, and now Assad does not lead to democracy but rather to chaos. In explaining why Palestinians in free elections chose the terror group Hamas over the ostensibly more open Palestinian Authority, Natan Sharansky wrote that before there can be democracy in practice, there needs to be the mental and philosophical underpinnings on which democracy can rest. In Islamic states, such conditions do not exist. So whether a dictator is removed by Western force or he is driven out by his own people, what comes next is an Islamist junta or a breakdown of the country into separately-controlled regions based on group association. A distracted and in-fighting Syria is a boon to Israel and the West. As for the people of Syria, especially its minorities, the future looks Sharia, which means it looks bleak for them.
While the leader of the main rebel group could stage a photo op of the outgoing prime minister signing over power to the new leaders, that will be the end of anything resembling a peaceful transfer of power. There will be bloodletting and fighting between the various factions that succeeded in uniting for two weeks to get rid of a dictator. Syria’s future can be seen in Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan. It is not a pretty future for those who live there.