The highly anticipated presidential debate took place last night on ABC News. The significance can not be understated, it was the first time former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris met in person. Perhaps, it also might be the last presidential debate that Americans see before the general election in November. New NPR polling shows that 3-in-10 voters claimed that the debate would help them decide their vote. Trump rose to the moment and won the debate.
For the last few years, voters have ranked the economy and immigration as their key issues for the 2024 election. Former President Trump clearly articulated his accomplishments during his first term, and his plans for a second term on the economy and border security. Trump talked about how during his first term he cut taxes, grew the economy, negotiated better trade deals, slapped tariffs on China for unfair trade practices, and ensured that inflation was not an issue for Americans. Elections ultimately come down to contrasts, were you better off than you were four years ago? Voters answer that question with a clear no. On top of that, they blamed Vice President Harris for many of President Joe Biden’s failures on the economy, higher prices, and immigration woes. Under the Biden-Harris administration, prices are higher, mortgage rates are higher, and the border is less secure. Trump tied Harris to the failures of the Biden-Harris administration on inflation and the border.
Harris raised the bar for the debate, simply because she has avoided doing interviews and press conferences in her almost two months since taking over the top spot on the Democratic ticket. She has taken previously unpopular progressive positions on cashless bail, funding the bail of looters and rioters, banning fracking, abolishing Immigration Customs and Enforcement (ICE), and supporting taxpayer funded gender transitions for migrants. These were not positions she held as a young girl, or in college. But rather, they were positions she held a few years ago when she was a sitting senator and candidate for president in 2020. In fact, she was ranked the most liberal Senator, left of even Bernie Sanders. Harris did not provide any compelling answer for her flip flops on these key issues, especially fracking, given how important the industry is for Pennsylvania where the debate took place. What would cause Harris to shift on all of these deeply progressive positions? They are unpopular with voters and do not poll well. Simply put: politics.
One of Trump’s strongest attacks on Harris was his closing statement. Trump smartly pointed out that Harris has been VP for 3.5 years, so when she is talking about all of the things she wants to accomplish on the border and economy, why has she not done so already? Voters will certainly ask this when they go to the polls in November. The 2024 election will be very close. In 2020, the election came down to tens of thousands of votes in a few states. The polling shows that it is a statistical tie. Trump is in a better position in the polling at this point than he was in September 2016 and September 2020. Moreover, Trump is seen by voters as more to the center than Harris and as the candidate of change. Ultimately, whoever occupies that lane will win in November.
Elections always come down to contrast and the important question about whether Americans were better off four years ago. Trump clearly articulated his past accomplishments during his first term on the economy, immigration, and foreign policy. Harris struggled to explain her changing positions on previously held progressive policies. She also failed to distance herself from the unpopular policies of the Biden-Harris administration. Given that, Trump clearly won the debate.
Garrett Ventry is the founder of GRV Strategies. He previously served as senior adviser to Rep. Stefanik, chief of staff to Rep. Buck, and communications adviser to Sen. Grassley.