President Joe Biden’s visible physical decline continues to show Americans he’s no spring chicken for the toughest job in the world, and now Democrats are resurfacing intentionally divisive attack lines on former President Trump and congressional Republicans after his sham trial convictions failed to weaken him in the polls.
The newer term, “threats to democracy”, is now meant to harken negative feelings from January 6, 2021, and stoke motivating fear to vote for Biden. This approach is nearly the same as in 2020, when Democrats narrowly won by making a vote for Biden really a vote against Trump, sans the January sixth reference, of course. Then, as now, their pitch to voters neither addressed their most pressing concerns nor cast a positive vision for the future.
Data shows this tack lacks connectivity to what the term ‘threats to democracy’ means for individuals, creating even more confusion among the crucial 10 to 15 percent of voters needed to swing this election. However, those voters are different than the 15 percent who say ‘threats to democracy’ is their top concern this election. Unsurprisingly, those people are older Democrats who voted for Biden in 2020 and wholeheartedly buy the term’s implied meaning.
Only a narrow slice of the electorate sees this issue as important. Voters are much more concerned about the economy and immigration, as are Independents. So why, then, are Democrats planning to use ‘threats to democracy’ as their new theme of attacks? It’s simple: they don’t have good answers to the top two most pressing issues for voters: the economy and immigration.
You would be forgiven for thinking this strategy is just Democrats taking advantage of Trump’s convictions, but the data doesn’t lie. Voters are less likely to view the cases against him as legitimate, proving why these trials haven’t moved the topline numbers. More notably, 40 percent of Independents say his convictions actually weaken democracy. In addition, Trump has significantly consolidated his base, which is an early sign that he’s already gearing up for the ground game phase of this election. Just this week, his campaign announced multiple openings of field offices in deep blue Minnesota.
While Trump’s legal issues are firsts in presidential politics, the media’s treatment of the verdicts has not weakened Trump’s position in the race – especially among these voters who seem less concerned about the man’s convictions and more concerned about the system pursuing him. Thirty-six percent of Independent voters already thought Trump’s trials would end up helping his campaign rather than hurt it, and the same percentage say they already expected him to be guilty.
Yet despite the clarity within the data on this issue, Democrats see an opening to attach these supposed “threats” squarely on Trump and anyone with an ‘R’ after their name. Beyond the fact this approach is a gamble for Democrat operatives and so-called messaging experts, it still doesn’t answer how Trump is a threat to our democracy, nor does it evoke confidence that Biden is the one to protect voters from the threat they say Trump’s victory poses. ‘Threats to democracy’ is too nebulous a term and subject to voters’ perception of what a threat against democracy could be. The ambiguous nature of the term means poll respondents might assign the threat to a candidate, an issue, or an institution.
The general election might be a two-point difference but looking at the policy contrast between Trump and Biden, Trump’s lead jumps to five points. Furthermore, Trump leads Biden by two points among Independents when asked which candidate's policies are better for their lives. But there’s just one problem: Democrats fail to recognize the cognitive dissonance they create in the minds of voters when they deploy the ‘threats to democracy’ attack line outside the halls of MSNBC.
If voters are to value democracy so much that voting incongruent with their self-interests is the only way to protect it, they must have a consensus on what the threat is. The real gamble for Democrats is building that kind of widespread consensus in an era of American politics where algorithms segregate us, media placate us, and Congress can’t agree on anything other than naming post offices and federal buildings. Good luck with that.
Mitch Brown is a pollster and Director of Political Strategy at Cygnal, the fastest growing and most accurate GOP polling firm.