Former President Donald Trump’s conviction last week on 34 felony charges for what would amount to at most a minor paperwork violation in any sane courtroom sounds super ominous, but the general expert consensus seems to be that he won’t be serving any actual prison time, at least for this case (other than on MSNBC, of course, where anything less than life in prison is apparently “special treatment”).
Now, if the experts are wrong and Trump IS sentenced to prison and has to report right away even pending appeal, it would be difficult to argue that his presidential campaign wouldn’t effectively be over. Sure, most Republicans would doubtless still justifiably vote for him, but any chance of winning in purple states would go up in smoke.
For Republicans to have any shot at victory in that scenario, they’d be forced to replace Trump with someone else and pick up the pieces as best they can. And the only way they could do that and retain any semblance of Trump’s base would be for Trump himself to drop out and heartily endorse his replacement. I don’t know if he would do that, but if he did the campaign could still be winnable as that person would take on the de facto role of Trump, keeping the base, most of the righteous indignation, and perhaps drawing in others because of the lack of Trump’s baggage. (Before you comment, I’m not specifically referring to Ron DeSantis or anyone else for that matter. It could be anyone qualified and reasonably popular with a majority of Republicans. Think someone like J.D. Vance, for example.)
Still, it’s hard to imagine Trump actually passing on the torch, even to someone he considered a staunch loyalist. But he might, and if he did Democrats could be cooking their own goose by removing Trump from the board. Bottom line, while prison time for Donald Trump before the election would be the closest thing to a political apocalypse as has happened in most of our lifetimes short of an outright assassination, don’t look for it to happen. Not only do WE not want it, I don’t think the other side does either, albeit for different reasons.
What are those reasons? First, while there are obviously many moving parts and individual motivations & legal interpretations, I believe the overarching goal of the Democrat-inspired lawfare against Donald Trump was never to remove him entirely from the board. Sure, their ultimate goal is to keep Trump out of office, but they also want to keep another Republican out of that office. If they removed Trump and allowed the GOP to nominate someone potentially even more based, how would it help them?
No, the likely goal was to wound Trump by tagging him with the label of “convicted felon,” knowing that such a label would keep enough Americans from supporting him to ensure Democratic victories in swing states. There is plenty of time for retribution by putting Trump in actual prison after the election is won. Think I’m wrong? Why was the only trial to happen before the election the least serious one both in terms of legality and also potential punishment?
Even beyond the desired “felon” tag, a less-than-prison punishment will almost certainly help Democrats and severely hinder Trump’s ability to campaign. House arrest, the worst of the non-prison alternatives, would mean he could do interviews and appear on live videos, but actual campaigning and the famous MAGA rallies would be over before the campaign even began in earnest. Probation would be less serious, but still a major nuisance for campaign logistics.
Bottom line, it seems obvious that Democrats had a lot to gain by taking the small risk of trying the former president for some made-up “crime” in Manhattan, where a jury would probably convict a ham sandwich if prosecutors told them it was a “conservative” ham sandwich that needed to learn its lesson.
Some recent polling suggests that Trump could be benefiting from this conviction, at least in the short term. Earlier polling suggested he could lose a decisive percentage of his current support. Perhaps, given the outcry and messaging from so many across the political spectrum on the insanity of this entire case and verdict, the more recent reactions will hold. I sure hope so. But none of that means Democrats won’t do everything they can in the punishment phase to hinder Trump.
I caught a lot of flak last week on Twitter by pointing out the fact that we could’ve nominated someone who was not going to be a convicted felon on election day. Coulda, woulda, shoulda … I get it. Fair enough. But it'll still be hard for me not to be super frustrated if we lose this election and the conviction and punishment end up playing a negative role (if it ends up helping us, great!). Now that we are forced to lie in this bed, we need to live with it as best we can. I see fellow DeSantis supporters out there calling for Trump to be replaced against his will. Without Trump himself coming to that conclusion - and there is no guarantee he would under any circumstances - it’s insanity.
Can Trump overcome the “convicted felon” tag and win in November? I sure hope so, and I’m going to do everything I can to make sure my months-long predictions don’t come true. I would much rather live in a country with Trump’s policies being implemented for four years - and profit from those - than be proven right.
Last week, Alex Soros, son of George Soros, suggested that Democrats refer to Trump as a “convicted felon” every chance they got, assuming that doing so would hurt him politically. Ironically, thanks to Democrats, the label “convicted felon” doesn’t carry nearly the stigma that it used to. Maybe it’s time we finally hired one for president.