It’s the question I’m most asked.
“Who do you think it will be?”
I’ve asked former members of the first Trump administration who they think President Trump might want to balance out the ticket.
Both questions are silly because no one will be voting on the VP selection of President Trump. Donald Trump is the top of the ticket, his policies, leadership, and public sacrifice for the country he loves are what drives his support and poll numbers to higher and higher levels.
But Vice Presidents do matter.
If Joe Biden remains the Democrat nominee there will be people who vote against his ticket if Kamala Harris is still attached. She’s the worst performing person in that position in the history of the country and America can not risk her being one heartbeat away from running the world.
A Vice President can also be useful. And long before January 6, Mike Pence helped navigate a tricky and often backstabbing introduction to the villain-infested culture that is Washington DC. Both Trump & Pence have made clear that they really can’t work together anymore. But before January 6 they made a powerful team.
So here we are roughly a month out before the Republican National Convention with President Trump’s ticket-mate yet unnamed. And even before the person is named, even beyond two well publicized trials, even with everything crooked judges, prosecutors, the media, and washed up actors can throw at him—his lead grows.
So who does he pick?
Last week, immediately following the guilty verdict in the Kangaroo circus conviction put forward by legal hack Alvin Bragg and Judge Merchan Team Trump convened a focus group of nine. Each of them influential, titans of industry, and well respected. They met over a closed door dinner in Manhattan. Each were asked their opinion on who it should be.
A red state governor was suggested. But Trump leads that state so handily he wouldn’t gain much from the opportunity. A couple of other names were thrown in but not super strategic. The name that had the most traction? Nikki Haley.
The thought is to bring her supporters on board in enthusiastic numbers.
MAGA detests her for her broken promise to President Trump, most see Mike Pence as having more loyalty, but President Trump has steered clear of poking fun at Haley since her exit from the race. Everyone knows that signals something. She balances the ticket with a far more competent female than the Democrats have and in theory she would solidify her “supporters.”
I use air quotes around “supporters” for a reason.
I’m not sure that she could land the cross over Democrats who voted for her in open primaries mainly because I see those votes in large measure as a way to “get Trump.” I question strongly whether Haley’s appeal once linked to Trump moves any needle at all.
Often times President Trump sees things in ways no one else does. And I happen to think there is an even better Trump strategy to this process.
The short of it is this: put a stake through Biden’s heart and campaign by taking a state away from him.
Forget ALL of the swing states. If you take away a stronghold early on election night, you shift the entire map.
Democrats are presumed to be ceded California and New York to begin their chances at victory. Similarly Republicans are usually ceded Texas and Florida. The filling in of the map from there is considered the real chess match. At present Trump fills in far more of the map after that point than Biden does.
Because of that Biden has to re-take many of those midwest swing states to get back to the White House. Unlike the 2020 1-2% lead Biden had been able to eke out in polling at this juncture in 2020, he finds himself trailing 2-7% in each of those states on average.
So with California and New York giving him their delegates he can feel free to spend his campaign capital on swing states.
Unless…
Rewind the tape to 2021. In the aftermath of media behemoths spreading dragon-fire cancerous acid all over the January 6 events intending to name Donald Trump public enemy number one and cancel everyone who supported him. Rewind the tape to the gubernatorial race in the state of New York.
A bright, shiny face of a former Congressman who had worked sun up to sun down supporting President Trump’s legislative policies, defended him in committees and called out the lies of Adam Schiff in hearings ran for Governor of New York State. His name is Lee Zeldin.
Trump had lost to Biden the year before by 23%.
But one year later, Trump’s most reliable supporter in Congress flipped much of the map.
And it’s important to note that had Zeldin secured merely one more borough in the New York City area he likely would have been the winner in 2021.
What's my point in all of this?
President Trump needs a Vice President who is unapologetically pro-America. He needs someone who will run a divided Senate with his priorities being foremost. But he also needs a Vice Presidential candidate that can truly impact the election.
I don’t honestly believe that Nikki Haley lands independents and Democrats into Trump’s column. Frankly speaking Trump is doing that himself. He’s attracting Hispanic voters in droves. His rally in The Bronx demonstrated that a large Hispanic borough in New York City is vulnerable to Biden’s lies, empty promises, and phony-poser VP.
Hispanic voters also see Trump being persecuted the way many of them were in Cuba, Venezuela, and other tin pot regimes that caused them to want to be Americans in the first place.
And did I mention that Zeldin is married to a lovely bride who happens to be Hispanic and he’s fluent in Spanish?
Imagine a GOP ticket running Spanish ads in radio markets all over the nation in the voice of one of the candidates on the ticket.
But imagine this more: turn Zeldin loose to re-activate the organization he built state-wide in New York and throw a dagger into the “starting block” for Biden.
Let Zeldin campaign in New York State 24/7 and watch what happens.
Whether Team Trump wins NY wouldn’t even be the issue. They just have to scare Biden dollars out of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Georgia.
Would it work?
Trump lost New York by 23% in 2020. Two weeks ago he was down 9% in 2024. Since his conviction he’s closed the gap even more—the Emerson poll putting him at 7%—and if you consider the margin of error he could be within 3.5%.
Could a popular, bilingual, indefatigable squeaky clean candidate working 24/7 for the next 5 months help Trump close a 3.5% spread (when he’s often under sampled in polling by 5-8%?)
I’m not guaranteeing the results.
But it would be a very Donald Trump thing to do. To take a state away from his opponent that no one believes could be stolen.
And the absolute stunned expressions of the co-hosts on the View the morning following the election would say it all.
Just imagine…