**Brian Burch, President of CatholicVote, co-authored this article.
Joe Biden might want to head to confession. “Forgive me father, for I have sinned – and it’s going to cost me the White House.”
New polling shows a commanding +23% lead for President Trump among Michigan Catholics, a key voting block for November in this super competitive battleground state. Right now, per a survey commissioned by the League of American Workers, Trumpearns 54% of the Catholic vote in the Great Lakes State vs. 31% for Biden and undecided at 15%.
When the polling firm, North Star Opinion Research, threw in third party candidates, Cornel West, plus Robert F. Kennedy Jr. from the famed Catholic Kennedy clan, Trump still charges to a huge win among Michigan Catholics. In a multi-candidate race, Trump captures a still-huge +21% margin over Biden and a 29% spread over RFK.
Why does the Catholic vote matter so much – and why is it moving away from Biden and toward Trump?
Historically, the Catholic voter base has a stellar record in determining the presidential winner. In fact, before the 2020 election, for a half century the Catholic vote went to the presidential winner in every contest but one. The exception was the super-close 2000 race between Al Gore and eventual winner George W. Bush.
In 2020, the Catholic vote split almost exactly evenly between President Trump and Biden. But crucially, Catholics in 2020 shifted materially against Trump compared to his 2016 performance. According to the Pew Research validated voter survey of election returns, in 2016, Trump earned a Catholic windfall, winning the group by eight percentage points, 52-44%. That big margin proved critical, especially in heavily Catholic battleground states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
But in 2020, Pew showed only a slight 1% edge for Trump, 50-49% among Catholics. So, Catholic voters rallied to Biden in a way they had not for Hillary Clinton. That Catholic swing in 2020 provided the single most important margin for Democrats to win back battleground states.
But those same states today reveal a very different reality. In fact, if current trends hold, Trump could well enjoy a victory among Catholic voters that far exceeds his prior 2016 triumph.
This Michigan polling, for reference, canvassed 600 likely voters who had split +4% for Biden in the 2020 election. The overall topline number for the November general election shows a dead heat horse race, with 43% for both Biden and Trump.
Looking at the details in the polling crosstabs, the main driver for this Trump romp among Catholics is the economy. When all Michigan citizens were asked whether they were better off economically under Biden or under Trump, the former president earns a big +11% advantage, 49-38%. That gap alone should send shivers down the spines of Democratic strategists, since pocketbook issues dominate almost every election.
But the economic margin among Catholics reaches blowout numbers in Trump’s favor. 61% of Catholics say they were better off with Trump vs. only 30% favoring Biden on this issue of their personal prosperity. Clearly, working-class Catholics struggle in this era of Biden’s inflation and an economy that only works for the credentialed top-tier of society.
Secondly, rank-and-file Catholics clearly reject Biden on the immigration enforcement, and similarly disagree with many in the Catholic hierarchy who espouse porous borders. When asked to rate the federal government’s job performance on managing the border, a stunning 0% of Michigan Catholics rated it as “very strong” and a shopping 70% said it is “very weak.” That latter number was far higher than even Evangelical Protestants, who lean well to the right politically.
In addition, Biden’s extremism on abortion seems to cost him Catholic support. Both Biden and his Vice-President Kamala Harris take the most radical stance of any White House ever on abortion. They do not just accept legal abortion, but in fact celebrate it and insist on unfettered abortion on demand. We asked Michigan voters: “Do you think the Democratic Party has become too extreme on the issue of abortion, or is the Democratic Party’s position on abortion is inside the mainstream?” Among Catholics, 52% said the Democrats are too extreme and only 36% said the Democrats are mainstream on abortion.
So, Biden and Harris face huge hurdles among Catholics who clearly reject the financial pain of “Bidenomics,” the chaos of open borders, and the cultural radicalism of the 2020s Democrats. These are not your parents’ and grandparents’ Democrats. It is no longer the party of JFK and Tip O’Neil.
If Catholics continue their near perfect record of deciding the presidency, then Donald J. Trump appears headed to a second term as the 47th president of the United States.
Brian Burch is President of CatholicVote.
Steve Cortes is former senior advisor to President Trump, former commentator for Fox News and CNN, and president of the League of American Workers, a populist right pro-laborer advocacy group.