Settled in the first round, Indonesia’s presidential election is over. Well passing the fifty-percent threshold mandated by the country’s Constitution, Defense Minister and former General Prabowo Subianto has avoided a June run-off election with either of his two challengers. This will allow Prabowo and outgoing term-limited President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) a longer and smoother transition. It will also save the government significant time and money required to conduct a runoff election.
The transition will be more like two relay runners passing off the baton. Although Prabowo unsuccessfully ran against Jokowi in 2024 and 2019, Prabowo accepted a position in Jokowi’s government as Defense Minister after his last defeat. During this year's bid, Prabowo pledged to keep the initiatives of Jokowi alive. Having selected Jokowi’s son Gibran Rakabuming Raka as his vice-presidential running mate firms up the credibility of that pledge.
Following the immensely popular and successful Jokowi is going to be a difficult job for anyone. In the past ten years, Indonesia has become a vibrant and successful democracy. In a nation of 279 million people, it has 204 million eligible voters. Its 83.5 percent election turn-out is remarkable, especially considering the nation is spread across 17,000 islands in an area larger than the United States. Both international observers and all parties within Indonesia recognize the election as being legitimate.
Indonesia's economic rise has no sign of diminishing. It is projected by 2027 to become the sixth largest economy in the world and by 2050 become the fifth. These assessments come not from Indonesia, but the international community. Indonesia has the resources to back it up with its youth being the most valuable. Fifty percent of its population are either Generation Z (born since 1996) or Millennials (born since 1980). This is the same demographic that related most closely to Prabowo despite his two opponents being much younger.
Indonesia is the world’s largest exporter of nickel. Used in vehicle batteries, the international demand will rise even higher with the shift to environmentally friendly vehicles. The country is also a major exporter of oil, natural gas, coal, aluminum ore, gold, tin, and copper. The country is an agricultural paradise. There is no shortage of rubber trees on those 17,000 islands. Indonesia is quickly joining Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and China as vibrant East Asian economies.
From a geographic perspective, Indonesia’s ability to export its goods could not be better. Its largest island, Sumatra, forms the southern coast of the Strait of Malacca. Called the “Maritime Silk Road,” the Strait links the Indian Ocean to the South China Sea. Twenty-four miles across the Strait at its narrowest point is Malaysia and then Singapore. With no easy alternative route, nearly one quarter of all global shipping passes through the Strait. At the turn of the century, piracy was a major problem. International patrols, especially from the Association of Southern Asian Nations (ASEAN), has eliminated this problem. Without continuing patrols and enforcement, like all criminals, pirates are always looking for an opportunity to re-emerge.
ASEAN became the regional solution when the U.S.-led Southeast Asia Treaty Organization failed. ASEAN members are Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. Indonesia’s capital city of Jakarta serves as ASEAN’s diplomatic capital.
By population, Indonesia is the world’s third largest democracy, following India and the United States. It’s the largest democracy for a predominantly Muslim country. In the Middle East, efforts to create democracies in Muslim countries have resulted in totalitarian and brutally oppressive states. Indonesia proves that the problem is not religion, but opportunists who seize power for their own gain.
Jokowi gave of himself to build a nation centered on the people. This is a great part of why, over his own party’s candidate, Jokowi publicly endorsed Prabowo’s 2024 candidacy. One of the opposing candidates, promising inclusion for all, had a history of ethnic and religious negativity.
President Reagan often said any democracy is always one generation away from extinction. The fact that 83.5 percent of eligible voters turned out to deliver 60 percent of their votes to Prabowo confirms they take their democracy seriously and have no intent to let their nation be engulfed in religious or regional disputes.
Concerning regional disputes, Prabowo has made it clear he will continue Indonesia’s course to stay clear of foreign influences. That is critical, not just for Indonesia, but for global security.
The United States should lead the world in recognizing the progress the people of Indonesia have made in improving their country and the security they play in the region. It’s a country on the rise, prime for investment and the increase of international trade. The stronger Indonesia becomes economically and politically, the more it will be able to increase its role in regional and international stability.