America gives billions of dollars of military aid to Israel. What if it stopped?
There is a story of the famed “Johnson Diamond.” Mrs. Johnson was showing off her huge rock and mentioned to an admirer that the stone came with a curse. Her friend was shocked and asked what the curse was. “Mr. Johnson,” was the reply.
Israel has been the recipient of vast amounts of US aid for decades. Much of the money is for military equipment purchased from the US—planes, helicopters, bombs, and more. Israel, unlike some countries, is extremely grateful for US largess: Israelis love the United States and Israel has been a staunch ally of her benefactor. While the relationship between the two countries is one of respect, similar values, and a lot of shared citizens (measured in the hundreds of thousands in each direction), there can be differences of opinion. For decades, Israel has wanted to wean itself off of American aid. And to date, it has not succeeded.
The reason for wanting to be more independent is not because of any distaste for the US. Rather, US aid understandably comes with strings attached. President Obama infamously slowed down weapons deliveries during a hot war with Hamas, and Israelis were appalled. In the current war, while the US has been a strong supporter of Israel’s right to defend itself, there are points of difference between the countries. According to an article by Caroline Glick, the US is trying to prevent Israel from importing 65,000 foreign workers to replace Palestinian laborers who are no longer wanted in the country. The US has publicly demanded that Israel reduce Palestinian casualties and has pushed for greater humanitarian aid deliveries. I am no expert in the history of warfare, but I do not recall any conflagration in which one side fed the other while shooting at it. Eighty percent of aid is taken by Hamas.
Israel’s hope for financial independence from the US was based on the idea that Israel could act on its own interests without the US gently or otherwise telling Israel what to do. Joe Biden and Tony Blinken have been generally supportive of Israel, but their demands can lead to Israel changing the way it fights to the detriment of its war effort and/or cause Israel to stop the campaign early without finishing off Hamas. The latter outcome means that another 10/7 is all but certain, date unknown. Israel must destroy its enemies and US interference may make such an outcome either more difficult or even impossible.
While the US has through both Republican and Democratic administrations provided arms to Israel, the US has no legal obligation to do so. It is a generous gift that also serves US interests in having an ally in the region as well as a high quality source of intelligence and technology. But what if the US were to stop or significantly reduce aid to Israel, during a time of war? What would happen? The answer to that question can be found in history.
When combined Arab armies attacked Israel on Yom Kippur in 1973 (exactly 40 years before 10/7), Henry Kissinger concluded that Israel had to win. But he also concluded that it should be a limited victory and not a total thumping as in 1967. He reasoned that if the Arabs lost badly, the opportunity for peace talks would be extremely remote. So he started slow-walking weapons deliveries to Israel. And the pace was too slow for the Israelis who were facing an existential threat in the north and south (sound familiar?). Golda Meir made her famous speech about Israel using all of its resources to save itself. Nixon understood that nuclear weapons were now on the menu and went over Kissinger’s head and had C130’s full of military gear landing on the hour in Israel. Israel won the war and a few years later, Anwar Sadat made peace with Egypt’s former enemy.
So what would happen if the US cut or significantly reduced military aid to Israel—something that is completely within the rights of the US government? I am not a spokesperson for the Jewish people, but I can say that Jews are tired of being killed. Next week is the anniversary (“yarzheit”) of a great uncle who badmouthed Hitler and his government while dining in Czechoslovakia and was taken to Dachau where he was later murdered. If Israel found itself without US military support (90 percent of which has to be spent in the US going up to 100 percent in 2028), it would have three options. One would be nuclear: if there is no other way to win, then go for the bomb. Another is to find a new supplier. As Russia is busy at the moment, China would be the only potential alternative. I don’t know how much Pentagon honchos would like Chinese officers looking over Israeli F-35’s and advanced F-15’s and F-16’s. The third option would be to end the war for lack of weaponry or munitions, and the option is not on the table for 80 percent of the Israeli public.
While the lion’s share of US aid is spent in the US, that small portion spent in Israel is extremely important. I once worked out of a small factory that made rebreathers for Israel’s SEALs. They also made a similar breathing unit for soldiers who go into tunnels. That US aid supports lots of little shops that make key Israeli military technology not only for Israel but for the US too. A nation of shopkeepers that helps keep the US safe as well.
US military aid is critical for Israeli success on the battlefield. That aid also benefits the US in helping to destroy jihadists and weaken Iran and its many militias. The US has the right to condition aid but should do so with extreme care. Israel knows how best to fight this war, and as many have pointed out, it has done more to protect civilians than any army—including the US—in history. A strong Israel is a boon to the US and a world free of Islamic terror and coercion. Israel appreciates its great friend. US support for Israel ultimately benefits both countries’ security.