This is a pivotal week in the 2024 US presidential campaign with the all-important New Hampshire primary taking place on the heels of the Iowa Caucus. While New Hampshire may not make or break any of the campaigns of the leading contenders quite yet, it is going to be decisive nonetheless.
While support for Israel in its war against Hamas is largely bipartisan, and President Biden has said and done notable things indicating support for Israel, Republican challengers as well as the Democrat incumbent each are campaigning within their own parties as well as against one another. Israel matters. For each of the candidates in their respective parties, support for Israel in general, and in the war specifically, are important.
For voters concerned about foreign policy in 2024, one issue is rising to the top: Israel’s war against Hamas. Campaigning in the middle of a war will cause the pro-Israel Republicans to try to outdo one another in demonstrating their pro-Israel bona fides. At the same time, President Biden who refers to himself as a Zionist, will have to straddle the awkward and sometimes distant lines of what is seen by many as genuine support for Israel, albeit with major differences with Prime Minister Netanyahu, and statements and actions that contradict the pro-Israel position he stakes out. In addition, Biden has the pro-Hamas/terror wing of his own party to be mindful of which, because of his early support for Israel following the Hamas massacre, threaten not to vote for him.
For the main Republican contenders, Israel is a top consideration. Donald Trump largely has not just pro-Israel position, but a track record he can point to vis a vis supporting Israel. These include recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, moving the US embassy to Jerusalem, recognizing the Golan Heights as part of sovereignIsrael, and restoring sanctions against Iran to undermine the Islamic regime and its drive to nuclear weapons.
Trump however has made recent statements that question his actual support, some of which may be ill-tempered off the cuff remarks, or pointing to a spat with Prime Minister Netanyahu which began after the 2020 election.
Of the two remaining main contenders, both Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis have not only strong positions of being supportive of Israel, but also no less of a track record in doing so than Trump. Haley’s strong pro-Israel credentials go back to her serving as governor of South Carolina (next up in the primaries following New Hampshire), and as US ambassador to the United Nations where she was widely feted (even by Trump). DeSantis also has strong pro-Israel credentials as governor of Florida, passing bold legislation in support of Israel and against antisemitism, some of which set the pace for other states to follow suit.
On the Democratic side, the question of support has been much more murky. As incumbent, Biden and his track record and statement will be under greater scrutiny. The Biden administration has won admiration, support and appreciation for flying to Israel to show solidarity immediately following October 7, for moving US warships to the Mediterranean as a message to Hezbollah and Iran, for supplying Israel arms and resources to continue the battle against Hamas, and more. But Biden has earned criticism for alleging Israel’s “indiscriminate bombing” of Gaza, pressure to provide humanitarian supplies to an enemy entity, pause or draw down the active combat, and more.
All this is from within Israel and its supporters. Yet, among the pro-Hamas/terror wing of the Democratic party, Biden is receiving threats that they will not vote for him, risking turning typically solid blue states into play for a Republican challenger. Even if he identifies as a Zionist, he is a Zionist who wants to remain president. Will he campaign toward the extreme left wing of his party and diminish his support, at least in public. Will he use what’s appearing to be growing public tension with Netanyahu as a political tool to appease the pro-Hamas/terror wing of his party?
There are many questions, possibilities, and implications of how the candidates campaign. How will Biden’s policies, statements, and both support for or possible threats to Israel be influenced by the campaign, and how will he campaign in support of Israel, or not? What will the outcome be for Israel in terms of waging this war against Hamas, and releasing all the hostages? Will the US threaten to withhold weapons even as the administration says Hamas must be defeated? How will it pushing for a two-state solution impact the progression and outcome of the war?
What are the regional and global implications of the war, including with Iran and its proxies, and how will the US conduct these during an election season? Will Israel have more of a free hand, or be restrained? How will the Republicans campaign against one another, and against Biden? Will they pivot to the extremes in their parties, or can they win by campaigning to the center? How does the religious vote – specifically the Jewish vote and evangelical vote – matter, or does it? Will these respective groups consider their stance and actions vis a vis Israel in a way that might sway their vote, or will they reflexively back the candidate of the party forwhich they are predisposed to vote anyway?
These and other sissies will be discussed in the Genesis 123 Foundation’s Inspiration from Zion briefing. Noted journalists John Haller (Prophesy Update) and Jonathan Tobin (Editor in Chief of the Jewish News Syndicate) will be featured on Wednesday, January 24, at 1:30pm Eastern/10:30am Pacific. Advance registration is required.
It is sure to be a provocative and insightful conversation as it relates to the ongoing war against Hamas, Iran and its proxies, and how these are impacted by the presidential campaign and will be scrutinized for months to come.