Donald Trump supporters hate Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, and their supporters hate Trump. Put those names in any order, and the sentence remains true. It’s a common refrain in politics – that candidates shouldn’t be so nasty to each other because whoever gets the nomination will need the support of the people who voted for the other candidates. And it’s true: winning in politics is about addition, not subtraction. But the math of the Iowa Caucuses should give everyone involved a reason to be concerned about the serious enthusiasm gap Republicans might be facing.
You heard it in the reporting of the Iowa results – Donald Trump had a “historic” victory. He won Iowa in a walk, with 51 percent of the vote. But just focusing on percentages misses the bigger picture: the number of people voting in the Republican Caucuses was WAY DOWN compared to 2016.
In 2016, 186,874 Iowans voted in the Republican caucuses. Ted Cruz won with 27.6 percent or 51,666 votes. This year, Donald Trump won with 56,260 votes, which constituted 51 percent. That’s a hell of a drop-off.
The total number of votes cast this year was 110,298, or 76,576 fewer than the last time there was a competitive fight for the GOP nomination.
Yes, it was very cold that day, but the caucuses aren’t held in a parking lot, and this isn’t Florida, where anything below 60 degrees causes people to panic and hide inside. This was Iowa, where winters happen, and people take pride in their first-in-the-nation status.
The turnout for the 2012 caucuses was 121,501, or 11,203 fewer than this year. For 2008, the number was 119,188, or 8,890 less.
That, in and of itself, isn’t much to be concerned about until you think about the whole picture. In 2016, Donald Trump drove turnout. Love him or hate him, he motivated voters. The total number of people voting that year was a record – 136,787,187 votes cast, more than the vote in the first Barack Obama election, though that election had a higher percentage turnout of 57.1 percent to 54.8 percent.
That number increased dramatically in 2020, but that can be attributed to COVID and the ridiculous laws that were changed to make it “easier” to vote – mail everyone a ballot, and a lot of people will send them back. That’s not enthusiasm; that’s just this side of a momma bird chewing its baby’s food for them level easy.
Well, know more after Tuesday’s vote in New Hampshire, no matter who wins. But the idea that a chunk of the Republican Party base, unaffiliated with any candidate, just isn’t interested in anyone running is a possibility the GOP needs to start thinking about now.
To win in November, it’s going to take everyone and their brother. Democrats aren’t going to sit back and wait for voters to come to them; they’re going to get them. No matter who the Republican nominees end up being, they’re going to be Hitler and a “dangerous threat to democracy.” While that sounds stupid to normal people, it works on Democrats. They will show up. Probably not for Joe Biden, but definitely against Republicans, and absolutely against the likely nominee Donald Trump.
If there isn’t a plan to counter that with moderate Republicans and independents, to reach them and inspire their voting, everyone is just wasting their time.
Everyone who is going to show up FOR a Republican no matter what is already in; the fight is over everyone else – the people who may show up or who wouldn’t normally vote or voted for Biden last time and realized how horrible he is. With so many media conservatives talking about the “uni party” in DC, they’re only inspiring people to stay home. It’s probably good for ratings and subscribers, but it's incredibly stupid and self-destructive if you’re interested in more than your own bottom line.
The Republican Party needs to formulate a plan to light a fire under the rear ends of every Republican and find a message for those in the middle who could go either way. We can’t count on Biden sucking to win us votes. Biden has sucked his whole life, and he kept getting reelected to the Senate. Plus, a lot of those same people think all Republicans suck too.
The people excited about November are VERY excited, but there are also very few of them, relatively speaking. The idea of an enthusiasm gap implies there is more excitement on one side than the other. In this case, there might be an apathy chasm on both sides. When your victory could hinge on limping over the finish line before the other person does, you’d damn well better be prepared for every possibility, and there’s a pretty good possibility that a large number of voters simply don’t want to vote for anyone. Hope there’s a plan for that.
Derek Hunter is the host of a free daily podcast (subscribe!) and author of the book, Outrage, INC., which exposes how liberals use fear and hatred to manipulate the masses, and host of the weekly “Week in F*cking Review” podcast where the news is spoken about the way it deserves to be. Follow him on Twitter at @DerekAHunter.