When Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, people wondered how Israel would respond, and if Iran and the United States would be pulled into the conflict, either via proxies or direct, kinetic engagement. Few, if any, wondered what the impact would be on the global supply chain.
Today, the war between Israel and Hamas is threatening to disrupt shipping on one of the most important waterways in the world, the so-called I-95 of the seas, as Iran-backed Houthi Rebels fire missiles and drones at commercial vessels traveling in the Red Sea.
The Houthis are a Yemen-based rebel organization which emerged in the late 1980s and early 1990s, growing into a major fighting force at the turn of the century.
The Houthis overthrew Yemen’s government in 2014, gaining control of Yemen’s capital, Sanaa. The Houthis share the same religion as Iran’s leaders, a country that backs the Houthis with money, training, and weaponry.
Since the Israeli-Hamas war began, U.S. warships have shot down a number of cruise missiles and drones fired by the Houthi Rebels. Sunday, December 3 saw a “total of four attacks against three separate commercial vessels linked to 14 separate nations. U.S. Destroyer USS Carney responded to the ship’s distress calls, shooting down three drones in total.”
These attacks are significant and pose a tremendous threat to the global supply chain.
The Gulf of Aden, at the southern end of the Red Sea, sees an estimated 21,000 ships passing through annually, either entering or exiting the Red Sea, making it one of the world’s busiest bodies of water. An estimated 11 percent, approximately 8.8 million barrels, of seaborne oil passes through the Gulf en route to the Mediterranean or the Arabian Seas, per Marine Insight.
A sustained closure of the waterway between the Suez Canal and the Gulf of Aden would devastate the global economy, cause the price of oil and other goods to skyrocket, and potentially spin the world into a global recession.
A recent example demonstrates the potential global financial impact. In March 2021, a container ship crashed into one of the banks of the Suez Canal, blocking the waterway for six days, holding up $54 billion in global trade. This water highway is critical to the world’s economy.
Keeping this waterway open is a paramount goal for the United States, especially given the disruption to shipping driven by the low water levels and reduced capacity of the Panama Canal.
The Red Sea has long been geopolitically important and has been the location of a number of threats to free navigation of the seas, going back to ancient times.
More recently, in the early 2000s, Somali pirates patrolled the Gulf of Aden, disrupting trade, straining insurance companies, and inspiring the movie, Captain Phillips.
As recently as July 2023, the United States deployed 3,000 troops to the region in response to oil tanker seizures by Iran.
The White House announced Monday, December 4 that the United States may establish a naval task force to escort commercial ships in the Red Sea to defend against attacks from Houthis and other aggressors. National security advisor, Jake Sullivan, said the U.S. “has been active conversations with allies about setting up escorts.”
This may not be enough. Even before the attacks on shipping in the Red Sea over the weekend, the Biden administration has been criticized for not more forcibly responding to attacks on U.S. troops in the region. In November, former President Trump’s last national security advisor, Robet O’Brien called on the Biden administration to do more to protect American troops, criticizing Biden’s retaliatory airstrikes on facilities used by the militants in Syria, calling them “a couple of minor pinprick attacks.”
By comparison, in 1988, in response to the mining of the USS Samuel B. Roberts by Iran, then President Ronald Reagan ordered the execution of Operation Praying Mantis, destroying two Iranian oil platforms and sinking or damaging no fewer than six Iranian war ships, causing Iran to significantly reduce its harassment of commercial shipping.
If the attacks both on commercial vessels in the Red Sea and on American troops in the Mid-East continue, the Biden administration will have to strike targets in Iran to demonstrate American resolve to protect her troops, ensure free navigation of the seas, and secure the global economy.
Anything less will only prolong hostile activities and leave the global economy at risk.