Based on the current polls, we may very well have an immovable object meets an irresistible force scenario, except here it is two aging, past-their-prime retreads who, in any normal time, would have retired to enjoy the remaining sands of the hourglass but have decided to instead run again for president. Both have fatal flaws. Under the old rules, we knew the election outcome without a doubt. Trump can’t possibly win, and Biden is certain to lose.
But someone has to win, and it will not be that RFK weirdo.
This spectacle is not a done deal. Though he’s far ahead today, Trump can still lose the nomination. If DeSantis does not take Iowa, I think he’s likely done. I will not dignify the primary “challenge” of retro-Romney Nikki Haley by pretending that her being nominated is a possibility. She wants veep like Christie wants ham.
As for Biden, the fantasy that somehow the Democrats are going to depose their desiccated old pervert president at the convention is ludicrous. If this senile corruptor does not vapor lock, he’s their candidate. Our recent off-year election debacle – thanks, Ronna! – gives his handlers the talking point that no matter how bad Biden is, the Republicans can still screw up their edge.
So, what happens if it is Trump v. Biden? How do you handicap a race where both candidates have insurmountable handicaps, in this case, the fact that Trump is Trump and the fact that Biden is whatever the hell he is?
At the outset, you have an unprecedented situation where Trump may campaign from the courthouse steps. Biden can’t even make it down the steps to the Rose Garden without Gerald Fording on his crusty behind. This will not be a normal campaign. There will not be any debates. Trump will hold rallies, and Biden will have small, intimate gatherings where he can be cringy around women and children. The Regime Media will go all in for Biden. There will be antics up to and including outright cheating, but Ronna McDaniel will get it right this time after about seven chances! But Biden sucks so much that he could blow it.
Let’s examine why Trump can’t win. Here’s the big reason: About 53% of American voters hate him. They shouldn’t, not only because he was a generally good president but because you are not voting for Chief Pal but Chief Executive. I think his nickname is embarrassingly stupid, and I am bored by his social media rants, but neither matter. Will he kill our enemies, pump the economy, and own the libs? Yes, yes and yes. I support Ron DeSantis because I think he’s more likely to win in general and because he’s more ruthlessly conservative, but if Trump somehow wins, I will Lionel Richie it and party all night long. I think he’s got a 20% chance of winning, and I would be thrilled to be wrong. If listening to a bunch of tubby doofuses with usernames like @MAGAStudBoy420 and avatars of 80s action movie heroes with their faces photoshopped in tweeting “I TOLD YOU SO!” for the next four years is the price for having a Republican win in 2024, I’ll happily pay it.
Trump’s advantage is a super hardcore bunch of supporters. Ignore the loudmouth weirdos who demand loyalty to a politician – as if! – and understand that these are great Americans, hardworking, patriotic, and worried about their country. There are a lot of them. But are there enough to outweigh the people who hate Trump? You look at the recent Trump-leading polls and see that it’s usually something like 43% to 42%. There’s a lot of missing percent there. A lot of people think, correctly, that Biden is a doddering moron, but Trump offends them to the core of their being. Being aesthetically offended by a politician is as silly as being devoted to one – your relationship with a politician should be entirely transactional – but it is also a fact that some people are. A lot of people hate Trump and will never vote for him.
Another fact is this lawfare garbage. The legal outrages against Trump are the most despicable and disgusting abuse of power in American political history and will cause huge damage to our political culture. Every charge and accusation is legal nonsense, a total lie, and the entire thing is an attempt to frame a political opponent to prevent him from returning to power and to punish him for daring to have won it in the first place. None of that is debatable. Nor is it debatable that a significant number of voters are stupid and care about this nonsense.
Some people believe that the “justice” system is something other than a lie and a scam. The fact is that some Americans will think less of Trump because his enemies have framed him. And you cannot wish away a fact because it is unfair and obnoxious.
Trump is showing positive signs – maybe. Many polls show people think he will do better on the economy, border, etc. They show Trump sort of leading. I like that result. I want the Republicans to win. But because it is what I want to hear, I am immediately suspicious. The Regime Media wants Trump because it thinks that gives the election to Biden, and it may be right. It was wrong in 2016, though.
Let’s examine why Biden must lose. First, he’s a terrible president. The economy sucks. The border sucks. We’re on the verge of new wars Trump would never have let happen. People are sick of him. He’s as popular as toe fungus on Valentine’s Day at Quentin Tarantino’s condo.
He is losing Latinx support, in part because of crap like “Latinx.” He is allegedly losing black support, though the bizarre celebration by the Trump people of his endorsements by fourth-tier rappers is hardly persuasive. The idea of Grandpa Badfinger getting less than 85% of the black vote is pretty nuts. If he blew it that bad, the Democrat Party would be fractured. And it’s already fracturing over Israel. Half the party wants to stand by the Jewish people, and half the party wants to stand by as the Palestinians murder the Jewish people. It would be hard for a smart, capable leader to reconcile these views within the coalition, and the Democrats have Biden instead of a smart, capable leader.
And next year is not going to get better for Biden. The economy will get worse. The border will get worse. Some Third World potentates will doubtlessly pull some shenanigans, and the smart money right now is to go short on Taiwan. His loathsome scuzzbag son might actually get indicted for an actual crime. Of course, Biden will be facing an RNC led by Ronna McDaniel, so he’s got that going for him, which is nice.
Yeah, the variable is, as always, events. For example, there is a significant chance the false legal charges against Trump will get dismissed or the show trial in the kangaroo courts will continue past the election. But the problem for both campaigns is what might happen and what has happened. The voters’ impressions of Trump and Biden are seared into their consciousness. Those are not going to change. They are fixed, and for the majority, they are distinctly negative. That’s the problem. Neither candidate can win, and both are inevitably going to lose.
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