Right now, at the tail end of September 2023, Donald Trump remains the overwhelming front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination. Every poll, even the ones with fewer reasons to be skeptical of their conclusions, shows this to some degree or another. I don’t think it’s over and I still think several key events still will take place between now and when Iowans cast their first ballots, including this Wednesday’s second debate, but I will also admit that time is running out and there is little room for error for Ron DeSantis or any of the other contenders for Trump’s spot at the top.
Still, that doesn’t mean it doesn’t boggle the mind. I feel like Trump supporters are in some sort of weird alternate reality and people who think like me on this issue are in the real one watching from a helicopter as two freight trains race towards each other at frightening speed on the same track. In their reality, the 91 pending felony charges against Trump don’t exist, or, if they do, they exist as some sort of hypothetical minor inconvenience that could possibly affect him negatively at some undetermined future date, but at this time is actually helping him win the primary.
The real reality, however, is entirely different. Nobody seems to acknowledge that the full weight of the federal and two state governments are now pointed directly at one man, and the odds that he will dance through the raindrops to avoid getting convicted of at least one, if not many more, of those 91 charges are so infinitesimal that you couldn’t spot them with the most powerful magnifying glass in existence. In other words, Trump WILL be a convicted felon before he ever has a chance at entering the White House again.
What then? What’s the plan, Trump supporters?
Sure, he’ll appeal and hopefully will remain out of prison, at least for a while, but the polling his online influencers love to constantly quote ALL show that his chances against Biden drop dramatically if he is saddled with a felony conviction. Results of a recent Reuters/Ipsos pollwith an almost 3,500 sample size show 57% of registered voters would NOT vote for Trump if he is convicted by a jury of a felony crime, while only 26% would. Even picking up every single undecided, it would be impossible to win a two-person race for the presidency with only 43% of the vote. It isn’t at all surprising that Democrats and Independents would feel this way, but his support among Republicans in that scenario dips to a tepid 52%.
Another poll conducted by WPA Intelligence has Biden’s 2% national lead jumping to 6% if Trump is convicted of a felony. Interestingly, that same poll shows enthusiasmabout voting for Biden skyrocketing 31 points - from 24% to 55% - if Trump is the opponent, further proving that nothing drives Democratic voter turnout quite like the name “Donald Trump” on a ballot.
It may not be fair, but it IS political reality, and political reality doesn’t care about our feelings about what is or isn’t fair. Felony convictions are poison to independent voters, a bloc he desperately needs to do well with to have any shot at all. They are also poison to the majority of normal people, even those skeptical of the justice system. Trump was already not going to win the general election, but a felony conviction will put the final, irreversible nails in the coffin and sink it 1,000 feet under hard concrete.
So, again, dear Trump supporting friends, what's the plan?
See, here’s the thing. I think there IS NO PLAN except another loss and another cycle of bitching and moaning about "muh fraud" while Democrats permanently reshape this country in their sick image. I think his hardcore “onlyTrump” supporters have taken the black pill and are almost excited about going down with the ship, and I think his online influencers have come to relish the victimhood perception that comes with losing election after election seemingly due to powers outside their control. It allows them to continue the grifting money train, and they fully intend to ride that cash cow as long as they can ... until Trump finally does go to prison.
The problem is, when that happens it'll be too late for the rest of us. I would say "enjoy losing," but we're all sadly on this sinking ship with them.