American politics is a bit more static than most pundits suggest. Only rarely do entirely new issues work their way into our campaigns and influence our elections. In truth, most campaign ads look relatively similar from cycle to cycle, hitting on similar themes and policy priorities.
Consider a run-of-the-mill advertisement that Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker has been running on Facebook. Walker calls out his opponent, Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), for voting with Joe Biden 96 percent of the time: “[That] means that you believe in higher taxes, you believe in open borders, you believe in calling our men and women in blue names like ‘thugs’ and ‘criminals.’” All of these arguments are true, all of them are very important, and none of them would have seemed out of place in a Republican ad even 30 years ago. Attacking the left for extremism on taxes, immigration, and crime has been a reliable blueprint for Republican electoral success for decades.
But the final attack of the ad is something new. “He voted for things like this,” Walker says, before adding, “He voted to put men in women’s sports.”
In just a few short years, transgender issues have risen to join the typical litany in Republican campaign advertising. In Nevada, Tulsi Gabbard (on behalf of Adam Laxalt) attacks Democrat Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto for going along with woke ideologues who “demonize police, support open borders, and believe biological men should compete against women in sports.” In South Dakota, a woman explains how she moved to the state because GOP Gov. Kristi Noem is “pro-second Amendment, anti-lockdown, pro-law enforcement, pro-family, and pro-women’s and girls’ sports.” In Florida, Sen. Marco Rubio attacks Democrat Rep. Val Demings for allowing abortions at the moment of birth, giving a billion dollars to convicted criminals and illegal immigrants, and for voting “to allow transgender youth sports and teaching radical gender identity without parental consent.”
Just a few years ago, it was difficult to find politicians who were even willing to talk about the issue. Then-Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-Ga.) introduced a bill in 2020, as did then-Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii). Donald Trump Jr. talked about it regularly in speeches. Groups like my organization, American Principles Project, ran millions of dollars of campaign ads in swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. But the issue didn’t figure nearly as much into most Republican campaigns as it does today.
Attacking Democrats on this was always a no-brainer. Polling consistently shows that putting men in women’s sports is incredibly unpopular — and nearly every Democrat running for federal office is on record supporting the so-called “Equality Act,” legislation that would make men in women’s sports the law of the land. But politicians are risk-averse creatures, and it took Gov. Glenn Youngkin's upset victory in Virginia last year, due in large part to his opposition to gender extremism in schools, to convince other politicians it was an issue worth running on.
Now it’s everywhere, and Democrats don’t have an answer. When Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) tried to paint his GOP opponent for Senate J.D. Vance as an extremist, Vance was able to turn it around immediately: “This is a guy who voted, just a couple of months ago, right, for the Equality Act… that would literally remove federal funding for free and reduced lunch programming for schools that don’t let biological males participate in biological females’ sports. The extremist here, Tim, is you.” Ryan had no response.
None of them have a response. When Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis attacked Democrat Charlie Crist for supporting gender indoctrination in schools and pushing for men in women's sports, Crist could only meekly respond that he saw himself as a "uniter." In other states, like Kansas, the Democrats are more brazen in their mental gymnastics. After vetoing Fairness in Women’s Sports bills twice, Democrat Gov. Laura Kelly is now running ads that begin, “Of course men should not play girls’ sports.” (When pressed on the contradiction, she later said the ad meant she doesn’t want adult men playing in girls’ sports.) In Washington State, Democrat congressional candidate Marie Gluesenkamp Perez responded to a question on the subject by pausing for a painful amount of time, pretending not to understand what was going on, and then attacking the woman who asked the question.
The braver Republican politicians have decided to press beyond the sports issue by going after sex-change procedures for minors. This issue also polls extremely well. Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), for example, is running ads attacking her Democrat opponent, Annie Andrews, for supporting “castrating boys,” “double mastectomies on girls,” and “gender-changing hormones.” The ad makes it simple: “If elected to Congress, Annie Andrews would legalize these barbaric procedures across the country.” DeSantis likewise has gone on offense against sex changes for kids, incorporating it into his campaign speeches and attacking Crist on it during their debate (again, Crist could only respond by pivoting to another topic).
Indeed, attacking the left for their gender radicalism on every front is likely to become a requirement for anyone who wants to lead the Republican Party, either in Congress or at the presidential level. The most credible potential leaders in both spheres are already doing so – Trump-aligned PACs are spending millions on mailers attacking sex-change surgeries for children, and rising congressional stars like Jim Banks and Marjorie Taylor Greene are busy crafting legislation to address the issue at the federal level. This issue is only going to become more prominent in the years to come. Other ambitious Republicans who are squishy on the issue are going to get left behind.
Opposing gender ideology has gone from a taboo topic in Republican circles to a central plank of the party's platform. Political candidates are addressing transgender issues in their districts and states because they know that it's a winning issue. It's become just as central to Republican campaigns as crime, immigration, and the economy. If and when a Republican majority takes Congress, they will have a mandate to finally address the awful consequences of gender ideology with legislation. The only question left is who will take the opportunity.
Terry Schilling is the president of American Principles Project. He is a native of Illinois and a graduate of Franciscan University of Steubenville, where he studied political science. He lives with his wife, Katie, in Northern Virginia. He’s the proud father of three girls and three boys. Follow him on Twitter at @Schilling1776.