Barring something unforeseen (something of Biblical dimensions) Republicans are on the cusp of a landslide election. It wouldn’t be surprising to see them pick up over 40 seats in the House and six in the Senate. The red tide will sweep through State Houses as well. Legislative chambers and governorships will flip to the GOP. Watching this all unfold is tantalizing. We must make every effort to avoid Schadenfreude.
You may have heard of the old Indian Chief who was asked about the effectiveness of a rain dance? His brilliant answer was, “Confidentially, the effectiveness of a rain dance depends largely on the timing.” The coming Republican rout will have little to do with Republicans (thus far) offering voters an agenda worth voting for.
The gathering storm and the approaching deluge has much more to do with timing.
Being “not them” will probably be enough in an election painted against the backdrop of spiraling inflation, a softening economy and a boneheaded White House. November will not be about former President Trump’s prickly personality. Democrats are finding it more difficult to hide behind COVID which limits their ability to harvest enough questionable ballots. This election will be about the mounting failures of this administration.
With the pathetic performance of Team Biden, it would be hard to lose. Without apology, we should run up the score. But without an agenda, a Republican sweep will be hollow. We’ve seen in the past how GOP majorities can quickly calcify. Bold colors fade to pastels. Their McClellan-like temerity soon making them almost indistinguishable from the other guys.
The biggest domestic issue is inflation. As Milton Friedman correctly stated, we have too many dollars chasing too few goods. Those “too many dollars” come from Washington. Too much federal spending. Too many dollars being borrowed or printed by our central bank to cover that spending. The pandemic was an excuse to shovel money at all kinds of things that wouldn’t have garnered enough support normally.
A large contributing factor to our spiraling inflation is energy. Abundant, affordable energy is essential to a healthy economy and a rising standard of living. This was a critical component to the booming Trump economy. The Biden war on domestic hydrocarbon energy has been an unmitigated disaster. Expensive energy hurts Americans at the pump and it drives the cost of everything else. With the exception of the Looney Left, Americans clearly see this. Band aid solutions like tapping our reserves (with a million barrels going to Communist China) and a gas tax holiday are laughable. Groveling to OPEC is humiliating. Childishly blaming Putin only serves to underscore the need for a genuine Made in America energy independence.
We must insist that the Republican candidates offer clear-eyed solutions to these problems. Fortunately, success leaves clues.
President Trump laid out the blueprint for a successful energy policy. Republicans must demand a return to a common sense energy strategy. Especially if they have made it clear that it will be at the top of their agenda assuming they’re given the gavels. Plenty of hearings around the country to discuss the problem will help frame the issue. Too be sure, the administration will resist. Republicans should expect some vetoes. Properly communicated however, the majority of Americans will rally to their side. By keeping the heat turned up, Team Biden will eventually see the light.
The Republican Majorities that were produced in the ’94 elections showed how to control federal spending. It started with a question. Why should the federal budget grow at a faster rate than the average family budget? By limiting that growth to slightly less than growth in the average family budget, you force the Congress and the Administration to set priorities. Waste is reduced. And because families and small businesses can spend and invest their money far more efficiently than the government can on their behalf, the economy grows faster, creating more jobs and tax revenue. The federal budget was balanced and over half a trillion dollars worth of publicly held debt was paid off. The economy roared with very low inflation.
By the way, there is no good reason that any state or local budget should grow at a faster rate than the average family budget either. That question and that strategy for controlling and prioritizing government spending will work everywhere.
By making clear that controlling spending, bringing down inflation and reinstating strong energy policies will be at the top of their agenda, Republicans can win big in November. More importantly, by going forth boldly they can begin to get the country back on the right track. America needs that agenda now more than ever.
Gil Gutknecht was elected with the first Republican majority in forty years in 1994. He served on the Budget Committee when Congress actually balanced its budget.