The growing concern is that China and Russia see President Biden’s weakness as a singular opportunity – best in decades – to double-team America, achieving regional goals with synchronized action while America stumbles. Warnings signs are everywhere. If leadership is not asserted, deterrence will fall away.
China has been ramping up military pressure on Taiwan in ways unseen for decades, if ever. Mainland Communist leadership is aggressively threatening Taiwan, diplomatically, economically, and militarily, testing whether Biden will make Taiwan’s defense a clear priority or not. So far, little indication.
China is methodically penetrating Taiwan’s maritime and air space with military hardware – and relative impunity. The number of offensive missions, ships and airplanes continues to rise, as President Biden blinks, Secretary Blinken winks, and nothing meaningful reinforces deterrence.
This week, Biden and President Xi meet “virtually” in what seems a welterweight-Suma pairing. Biden arrives with plummeting popularity, no wins, no ties, all loses, Americans and allies still in Afghanistan, borders undefended, inflation, crime, and distrust climbing, international profile growing distaste if not disgrace.
Hoping to give Biden some spine, Australia – harkening back to Japanese threats in WWII prior to US defense of the Pacific – has pledged to “help America” defend against Chinese aggression toward Taiwan. Sometimes cart before the horse wakes up the horse – let’s hope so.
China sees Biden as consumed with mismanaging domestic policy, unable to lead his party, protect his economy, borders, streets, or legacy – hardly up to a fight over Taiwan, which encourages adventurism.
Meantime, like two wolves hunting a lamb, or separating lambs from the flock while the shepherd sleeps, Russia has moved into position on Ukraine’s border – official estimates of 90,000 troops confronting a sovereign nation with no ability to defend, absent US leadership and NATO engagement.
Remember China promised Hong Kong would be free, a piecrust promise, easily made, easily broken. Russia promised no incursions on Georgia, Ukraine, other border regions, all broken. That was when the West was relatively unified, and the US was viewed as a world leader whose word meant something.
Since then, we have seen bows and courtesies to China, Iran, Saudi Arabia and OPEC (which ignored Biden’s request to increase oil production, as they cut US energy production for greenness), and China and Russia both watched – probably with slack jaws – as Biden fled the Taliban, and left hundreds of Americans and at least 14,000 U.S. legal permanent residents in the country, to be terrorized.
China and Russia know this, and what it means.
That continuing nightmare, which the press ignores, means Biden is unwilling to take risks to put things right, even for Americans and those credentialed by America to leave. If afraid of the Taliban, what do you think Biden would do to save foreign nationals – Taiwanese or Ukrainians – from China or Russia?
That is the logic of testing Biden – and doing it now, to see whether there is any appetite in his administration to defend freedom, or if it is all words – which greenlights territorial takeovers.
This is not rocket science, quantum mechanics, even high algebra, or bad chess, it is simple. Those with no respect for human rights look for a sign they will be forcibly stopped if they go for broke. Seeing no sign, they are tempted.
How do we know? Because – beyond obvious deductions watching Biden flail, facing open hostility from every quarter, France and Britain to Israel and Mexico, China and Russia are acting in tandem.
If you want to ride a defender off the play, double team him. If you want to add pressure, reduce the chances of a return punch, confuse, upset, stop an opponent, coordinate rogue actions. At best, a one-two punch forces the US – if Chinese and Russian actions are coordinated – to prioritize, make choices.
Net-net, the chessboard is set. China and Russia see Biden as weak, and their views are being corroborated not only by other adversaries and US Allies, but by the Biden administration’s stumbling sequence of failures, one mess after another, and a profound failure to learn.
All this encourages adventurism, risk-taking by malevolent, dishonest, opportunistic – and relatively powerful – foreign adversaries. China and Russia see a chance, and appearances indicate they are preparing to take it.
Seminal point: When deterrence falls away, risky actions rock the status quo, legal order, global stability. That is why Biden’s team needs to see the world as it is, step now into the breach. If they fail to assert primacy of law, backed up by primacy of military power, we lose before it starts.
Robert B. Charles served in the Reagan and Bush 41 White Houses, as Assistant Secretary of State under Colin Powell, and counsel to the US House National Security subcommittee for five years. He is the National Spokesman for AMAC, an association representing mature Americans.