President Biden handily won Virginia by a 10-point margin last November. Nearly a year later, however, his approval rating is tanking here.
What explains this? Could it be that the honeymoon is over? Or is Virginia competitive again?
A new Washington Post-Schar School poll examines Biden’s looming impact on the upcoming Virginia gubernatorial election. The findings are fascinating and could spell bad news for Virginia Democrats.
Deconstructing the Washington Post-Schar School Poll
The poll’s examined Virginia registered voters’ views on President Biden’s performance—and the results should alarm Democrats.
51 percent of respondents now disapprove of Biden’s overall performance, with 46 percent approving.
Ouch.
Political consultant Ryan Girdusky further broke down the numbers and showed Biden is underwater in regions that recently shifted more Democratic.
(WaPo poll - Virginia registered voters) Do you approve/disapprove of Biden?
— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) September 19, 2021
Voters: 46/51
Dems: 89/9
GOP: 9/91
Indie: 38/57
Men: 37/61
Women: 53/42
White: 39/58
Non-white: 63/33
White w/ college: 53/46
White no college: 29/67
Nova Exurbs: 43/54
Richmond: 50/45
Tidewater: 42/56
In the Northern Virginia exurbs - i.e. Prince William and Loudoun counties - 43 percent of respondents approve of Biden, while 54 percent disapprove. In Richmond, he has 50 percent approval compared to 45 percent approval. And in Tidewater/Hamption Roads, which has been very swing-y of late, Biden’s approval sits at 42 percent with a whopping 56 percent disapproving of his job performance.
Not only do Republicans strongly disapprove of Biden’s performance, he’s also underwater with independent voters with 57 percent strongly disapproving.
Could the President’s botched Afghanistan withdrawal and mixed messaging on COVID-19 be sinking him here in Virginia? A WPA Intelligence poll first noted the former was having an effect here.
Factoring in the WaPo poll, these trends - if they hold - do spell doom for Virginia Democrats this November.
Biden’s Scandals Trickling Down to 2021 Governor’s Race
Are Virginia Democrats vulnerable this fall?
Take the gubernatorial campaign unfolding today. Recent polls have found the contest between Terry McAuliffe and Glenn Youngkin is a statistical tie.
“There’s an intensity deficit here for the Democrats compared to where they were … during the Trump era,” Mark Rozell, dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University, told the Washington Post. “This tells me it’s a toss-up election right now.”
More damning, however, is this admission: “Democrats in power — such as President Biden — do not seem to be helping McAuliffe, and independents and White voters are breaking toward the Republican candidate.”
The WaPo poll also shows McAuliffe only leading with 50 percent to Youngkin’s 47 percent. The article also admits:
The poll’s findings hint broadly that Virginia might be settling back into more traditional voting patterns, with Youngkin doing well in exurban parts of Northern Virginia that had shifted toward Democrats during the Trump administration.
It also revealed McAuliffe is being dragged down by Biden:
The Post-Schar School poll suggests McAuliffe is faring weaker in Northern Virginia than Northam did four years ago, with the biggest shift in the Northern Virginia exurbs that include Prince William and Loudoun counties. Northam won the region by five percentage points in 2017 (52 percent to 47 percent), but Youngkin leads McAuliffe by 57 percent to 37 percent among likely voters in the Northern Virginia exurbs.
Youngkin is also leading with independents 52 percent to 44 percent. And it appears there’s more enthusiasm for him over T-Mac with “voters who currently support Youngkin are slightly more likely to say they are certain to vote than those who back McAuliffe, 76 percent to 69 percent.”
Fascinating, indeed.
Don’t Be Surprised if Republicans Win Here in November
While the California Recall results were disappointing, I’m more confident about Republican chances here in Virginia this November.
In off-year elections, especially with Democrats in the White House, Virginia Republicans generally do well—save for 2013.
I’ve spoken to several independents and center-left folks here who say Governor Northam’s bungled COVID response was enough for them to abandon Democrats in November. And it doesn’t help that Terry McAuliffe running again has angered Virginia Democrats, too.
Here’s why 2021 could be a good year for Virginia Republicans:
Republicans are more unified today than in 2013 and 2017.
Youngkin can compete with McAuliffe on fundraising and ads.
There’s no viable third-party candidate dividing the center-right vote.
Even Nate Silver’s 538 observed, “But if Youngkin wins, that would be evidence that Virginia remains competitive enough that, under favorable conditions, Republicans can still win statewide.”
Conclusion
I, personally, won’t be able to stomach another four years of Terry McAuliffe.
During his tenure, we had zero percent GDP growth. He’s a Swamp creature. He’s a shoddy businessman. He adopts fake Southern accents to mask off his carpetbagging ways. He wants to be “brick wall” for abortion again. He wants to undo right-to-work and impose more gun control. Virginia families will potentially pony up $5,400 more in expenditures under another McAuliffe term. And he touts Bill Krystal’s support thinking it’ll win him Republican support.
Cringe.
Fellow Virginia voters: make sure to vote this fall— against former Governor Terry McAuliffe.