Members of the media, your co-worker in the cubicle next door, your liberal brother-in-law... they all say the same thing: Biden's put together an insurmountable lead!
Just look at the latest headline from CNBC and you'll see the propaganda designed to bring you down and make you feel hopeless: Biden holds a large lead over Trump nationally, while swing state polls show a closer race... This is all a lie built upon a larger lie.
There is no "lead" in the presidential campaign. None. Zero. Nobody has a "lead."
Let's break this down.
This is an election. Elections are won or lost by gaining the majority of the votes cast in the appropriate jurisdiction. If one is running for Congress, one must get the majority of votes in the district you wish to win. If one is running for Senate, one must get the majority of votes in the state you wish to win.
If one is running for president, one must win the majority of votes in any combination of states that eventually total up to 270 electoral votes.
So, let's begin with the first lie in the "Biden's leading the race" lie: Any "lead" that shows Biden winning nation-wide in a poll is fatally flawed at the outset because national popularity is literally irrelevant in a presidential election.
A candidate who gets the most votes nationally has won absolutely nothing. We don't hold national elections in this country, so why do we continue to poll and then report the results of polls that reflect a nation-wide election that doesn't exist?
Saying that "Biden holds a large lead over Trump nationally" is the same as saying, "The Dodgers will score more total runs than the Braves in the National League Championship Series." It's meaningless. Baseball championships are not won by scoring the most runs across a seven-game series. Win the games by one run or by ten runs, it makes no difference, just win four out of seven games and you're the champions.
The second lie has to do with which voters these polls are purporting to reflect.
The polls are usually a reflection of "likely voters." But, what is a "likely voter"?
This is how Gallup qualifies a voter as "likely":
Gallup's likely voter procedures involve asking poll respondents a variety of questions about their interest in the coming election, their past voting behavior, and their intention to vote in the coming election (see the exact question wording in the "Question Wording" section). Gallup analysts have developed and validated these questions over the years and have modified them as necessary to take into account new information and changes in the ways in which the voting process takes place.
These are the questions poll respondents are asked to determine if they are a "likely voter": (emphasis mine)
- Thought given to election (quite a lot, some)
- Know where people in neighborhood go to vote (yes)
- Voted in election precinct before (yes)
- How often vote (always, nearly always)
- Plan to vote in election (yes)
- Likelihood of voting on a 10-point scale (7-10)
- Voted in last presidential election (yes)
As you can see, four of the seven questions are directly related to past voting habits. If you have voted before or are aware of the local voting location (which would also be weighted in favor of those who have voted before), you are more likely to appear in the "likely voter" polls.
If you have never voted before or have not voted on a regular basis before, you will not show up in the "likely voter" polls.
Why is this important?
Think about the energy and enthusiasm you see at Trump rallies, at Trump boat parades, at Trump truck parades, at Trump block parties, etc. Think about all of that energy and enthusiasm that you did not see in the 2016 election.
Who are those people?
Do you think these are people who have a regular track record of voting in elections? Or do you think that these are people who have been newly awakened to American politics and are now energized because of Trump and the movement surrounding him?
Maybe this might help you answer these questions.
After every rally, the RNC puts out the voter registration numbers they've attained through the rally registration/ticketing process. Here are the results of yesterday's rally in Iowa:
Great data from @realDonaldTrump’s rally in Des Moines shows support the pollsters are missing:
— Ronna McDaniel (@GOPChairwoman) October 15, 2020
? 10,139 voters identified
? 48.5% (!) NOT Republican
? 29.4% (!) Democrat
? 25.0% did not vote in 2016
? 13.7% did not vote in the last 4 elections
Thank you, Iowa!
Look at those numbers and now filter them through the lens of how Gallup and other pollsters qualify a respondent as a "likely voter."
Do you think a significant number of people at this rally would qualify as a "likely voter"? Do you think those people will show up in a Gallup poll?
Think of that. The people who go out of their way to go to a Trump rally are not counted in a poll for the presidential election.
Do you think maybe there's something broken about this process?
Finally, there's the most important part of the lie surrounding "Biden's Lead."
This is an election. Leads are determined when votes are counted, not when people respond to an anonymous polling company on the phone.
Winning a poll is not the same as winning an election.
Not one vote has been reported as counted at this point. Not. One.
Do you know who leads an election? The candidate who has the higher number of votes counted for them. That's it—no one else.
Biden is not "leading" the election. No one is "leading" the election.
These polls are meant to manipulate you and drag you down and make you stay home because why in hell should you go out of your way and stand in line to vote for a lost cause?
Don't let them succeed.
Biden has NO lead. None.
Go vote.