The market faced its first tough session of the year and held up well. The Coronavirus news, while worrisome, probably didn’t cause many money managers to dump stocks or individual investors to get out of the market. The reporting, however, is an example of the kind of excitable hyperbolic stuff you can expect to hear in 2020 on down days. Because the Dow Jones Industrial Average is so high, a normal down means shedding 200 points, so anything less probably shouldn’t be reported as “hits” or “slammed.”
Words are important, so make sure your financial news sources aren’t trying to trigger panic when reporting in breathless tones.
Sure, the virus could get worse, but for now, the notion it triggered massive selling is way over the top. Boeing (BA) on the other hand continues to be an unmitigated disaster, but maybe there was a climatic move yesterday. If the FAA greenlights the 737 Max before the end of July it will be framed as good news, although by now, you would have thought Boeing management would stay away from return dates and timetables.
Yesterday’s news coupled with reports Boeing needs to raise $10.0 makes the theory of Warren Buffet making a bid even more plausible. The stock tumbled through the heretofore key support of $320 trigging massive sell programs and forcing trading to be temporarily halted. Maybe $320 will be key resistance now and the buy point for technicians.
Board Market Breadth
NYSE
- Advancers 1,159
- Decliners 1,783
- UP Volume 1.31 billion
- Down Volume 1.16 billion
NASDAQ
- Advancers 1,258
- Decliners 2,003
- Up Volume 1.16 billion
- Down Volume 1.46 billion
Fear Gauge?
The Volatility 500 Index climbed more than six percent, but that isn’t the kind of fear one would associate with outright panic and fear. The index has been drifting lower and lower since August.
What are the Greatest Exogenous Risks to Market Rally? I handicap probability.
10% |
Democrats Win Presidential Election
|
10% |
Federal Reserve Misstep
|
5% |
Trade War Misstep
|
3% |
Debt Event
|
3% |
Miscellaneous like Coronavirus
|
0% |
Slower US Economy
|
After the close initial reactions to earnings were largely positive.
Traded Higher
- Netflix (NFLX)
8.76 million users, +20% year to year and above consensus of 7.65% but guidance of 7.0 million well below Wall Street 7.82 million.
- IBM (IBM)
Revenue $21.77 billion consensus $21.64 billion and earnings $4.71 consensus $4.69.
- Capital One (COF)
Revenue $7.43 billion consensus $7.32 billion and earnings $2.49 consensus $2.35. Red flag provision for loan loss $1.82 billion +11% from year ago +31% from third quarter.
- United Airlines (UAL)
Revenues coupled with lower fuel prices helped the company beat on revenue and earnings.
Portfolio Approach
No changes in the portfolio. We are spying the exits on some, but mostly to preserve profits, though not trying to panic or overreact.