Rebuild and Fight

One week removed from Tuesday's blue tsunami, we can now objectively look at what went right and, well, let's be honest, what went wrong.

While the road ahead may seem daunting, Republicans should remain hopeful about the future. I want to make that clear before we rummage through the darkness.

It's never easy to look failure in the face and make the necessary adjustments. That's true in every aspect of life. But we must, because we are the standard-bearers of Western civilization. It's our responsibility to fight for it, because freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction.

Heading into Election Day, polling across the country showed incredibly tight races. While most of us expected Republicans to lose the U.S. House, I think many Republican political pundits anticipated victories across the board in the U.S. Senate.

After all, this was an incredibly favorable Senate map for Republicans, and we were facing some of the most radical left-wing candidates we've ever seen. And what historical data suggested otherwise?

According to an analysis by Patrick Ruffini of more than 3,000 Senate polls across four election cycles, polling overestimated Democratic performance in all four cycles, with 73 percent of individual polls overstating the Democratic candidate's eventual margin.

Even Democrats acknowledged this historical polling problem in the weeks leading up to Election Day. We had both the electoral map and historical data on our side to hold the Senate chamber.

But what almost nobody anticipated was those same polls underestimating Democratic performance to the extent they did, while Republican voters stayed home.

Let's be absolutely clear about something: The number one reason Republicans lost was affordability.

It's why we won in 2024, and it's why we lost in 2026.

I also refuse to simply scapegoat the administration's efforts to prevent a nuclear Iran, as many have been quick to do.

You don't lose traditionally Republican states simply because we bombed terrorists. You put yourself in a position to lose when Americans feel the economic consequences in their pocketbooks.

President Trump may very well have made the right decision by intervening. I don't have the security clearance to know the full circumstances behind that decision, and neither do you.

This is a president with a record of seeking to avoid prolonged foreign conflicts and promising to keep America out of endless wars. When a president with that record decides military action is necessary, I'm inclined to believe he has a compelling reason.

To this day, he maintains it was the right decision, even in the aftermath of Tuesday's tsunami. That's a declaration I'm inclined to trust. But that doesn't mean voters won't hold Republicans accountable for the economic consequences.

My criticism of the war, if anything, is more about the messaging. At some point, declaring victory 60-plus times is going to fall flat. Even a completely justified military action loses its meaning when the message is watered down by poor communication.

Perhaps a blue wave was inevitable given the political and economic circumstances facing Republicans. But that still doesn't explain a tsunami.

Even affordability alone doesn't explain how Republicans managed to lose states like Mississippi, South Carolina, and Kansas. There were other failures, and Republicans need to own them.

We became complacent in states we assumed were safely Republican. We failed to organize, failed to recognize the warning signs, and, in some cases, nominated terrible candidates.

Look no further than South Carolina.

Republicans managed to nominate arguably the worst candidate in the country. Darline Graham was effectively forced upon Republican voters for no compelling reason, despite having strong conservative alternatives in Ralph Norman and Russell Fry.

Both would have been formidable candidates who, in my view, would have won the general election while making the United States Senate more conservative.

As a Norman supporter myself, I spoke with Russell at length about my frustrations with Darline. But for the good of the party, we committed to coalescing support around Darline despite her deficiencies. We worked to mend bridges from the primary and make the case that Annie Andrews would be a disaster for South Carolina.

Despite our efforts, we fell short, and we paid the price in ruby-red South Carolina.

Texas presents another cautionary tale.

Admittedly, Ken Paxton wasn't a particularly strong candidate in terms of electability. He came with significant baggage. I also accept blame here, as I pushed for Paxton in the primary. It's one of my regrets from this midterm cycle. I’ll take my medicine as well.

But why did Paxton rise to the nomination despite those liabilities? Because John Cornyn had lost the confidence of too many Republican voters.

At some point, your base is going to say enough is enough and vote accordingly.

Had Senate Republicans acknowledged that reality early on and Cornyn swallowed his pride, we could have rallied around Wesley Hunt instead. A strong conservative without the same political baggage, Hunt would have given Republicans a stronger alternative in a state that should never have been in jeopardy.

And so goes the domino effect.

When Republicans nominate stronger candidates in South Carolina and Texas, they aren't just improving their chances in those states. They're potentially freeing up resources to defend Ashley Hinson in Iowa and John Husted in Ohio.

We might even have had an opportunity to invest more aggressively on offense with Mike Rogers in Michigan and Michele Tafoya in Minnesota, both of whom delivered solid performances in states that have historically been difficult terrain for Republicans, especially in this environment.

Instead, Republicans were forced to spend precious time, money, and political capital defending territory that should never have been in jeopardy in the first place.

Much of this was preventable. And there's blame to go around, both among grassroots conservatives and the old-guard political establishment.

As much as I'd love to dissect every race individually, the broader lessons are clear. Republicans cannot afford to take their voters, their candidates, or their electoral advantages for granted. These same themes played out in races across the country.

The war may have been out of our hands, but our ability to build a red wall capable of withstanding the tsunami wasn't.

But enough about what went wrong. What matters now is what we do about it.

As our own Scott Jennings recently observed, the beauty of America is that we get another opportunity to vote in two years, and another after that. He compared the rebuilding process to a structure torn down to its studs. While daunting, it gives us an opportunity to imagine what we want to build back in its place.

And that's exactly where Republicans find themselves today.

Our belief in America, our commitment to defending the West, and our conservative principles didn't change because of an election. They were true on Monday, and they're true today. The question is whether we're willing to learn from our failures and build something stronger.

Fortunately, we don't have to look far for an example of what that could look like.

Look at Florida under Ron DeSantis.

Under his leadership, Republicans built a massive voter registration advantage, transforming what was once considered the nation's premier battleground state into a Republican stronghold. The voter registration numbers alone swung by 1.8 million in Republicans' favor.

DeSantis also demonstrated the importance of building a conservative bench. He appointed Ashley Moody to the U.S. Senate and replaced her as attorney general with James Uthmeier, maintaining conservative leadership in one of the state's most important offices.

And with Byron Donalds, a Freedom Caucus conservative, emerging as his successor, Florida Republicans have continued to build conservative leadership beyond any single administration.

DeSantis also understood something Republicans elsewhere too often forget: Give your voters a reason to show up.

His push to put property tax relief before voters is an example of making affordability a central political issue rather than treating it as an afterthought in an environment where it mattered.

Florida offers a blueprint for building a Republican Party capable of weathering difficult national political environments.

Never take a lead for granted. Continue organizing, registering voters, and expanding the electorate even when victory appears assured. Recruit strong conservative candidates who can earn the confidence of primary voters, compete in general elections, and deliver on their campaign promises.

And most importantly, give Americans a reason to vote Republican by addressing the issues that affect their everyday lives.

These aren't complicated lessons. But they require discipline, accountability, and a willingness to make difficult decisions before it's too late. The stronger our foundation in traditionally Republican states, the more resources we can dedicate to competing in battlegrounds and expanding the electoral map.

That's how we build a party capable of withstanding the next political wave rather than being swept away by it.

So here we are, torn down to the studs.

We can spend the next two years blaming the voters, the media, and everyone else for our failures. Or we can take an honest look at what went wrong and get to work building something better.

Our principles haven't changed. Neither has our responsibility to defend them.

The rebuilding starts now.

And now, we fight.

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