Zohran Mamdani, the socialist mayor of New York City, has proudly touted a steep drop in violent crime during his administration. His allies have seized on the numbers as proof that socialism works on public safety, despite the fact that the decline was already put in motion under former Mayor Eric Adams. 

But the story has become more complicated than Mamdani’s victory lap suggests. An analysis from the Manhattan Institute's City Journal found that the city’s crime picture is far less rosy once you look beyond just the murder rate. Homicides may be down, but nearly every other category of crime has risen.

According to the analysis, murder may have fallen by 19 percent and shootings by 15 percent. But that is where Mamdani’s success story largely ends. Car theft is up an astounding 144 percent. Felony assaults have risen by nearly 50 percent, while major felonies are up almost 25 percent. Misdemeanor assaults, robbery, grand larceny, and burglary have all increased between 5 and 10 percent. 

In other words, New Yorkers may be less likely to be the victim of murder, but they are increasingly likely to be robbed, assaulted, burglarized, or have their car stolen.

As for why that is, Rafael A. Mangual, a fellow at the Manhattan Institute, argues the answer may once again lie in law-enforcement strategy. 

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NYPD is focused on the relatively small number of offenders most likely to commit serious violence, removing them from the streets and deterring others in their immediate networks. That approach can produce sharp reductions in murders and shootings, while doing far less to curb, or even allowing increases in lower-level offenses. In other words, the numbers may reflect targeted policing against the most dangerous offenders, not a socialist public-safety miracle.

Mamdani is eager to claim credit for a narrow drop in homicides, because the apparent success of his socialist worldview depends on it. But he cannot credibly call his public-safety agenda a success while so many other crimes are rising. As is usual of socialists, Mayor Mamdani has succeeded in one thing, and one thing only: raising taxes on the wealthy, effectively whipping up a frenzy of resentment toward the rich nationwide.