There was one poll in 2012 that consistently reached the correct outcome of the election between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama. According to FiveThirtyEight, the Investor’s Business Daily/TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence poll predicted the correct outcome of that election, exposing Obama's dramatically underestimated performance and the falsehood of Romney's clear victory.
In the new poll released on Wednesday, Donald Trump is leading Hillary Clinton nationally, taking 41 to 40 percent lead.
This was the most accurate poll of the 2012 election (https://t.co/Fub1J46EgP) and currently shows Trump winning by +1 nationwide. https://t.co/JBsXUbJteb
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) October 19, 2016