Forecasts for the Weeks of February 2 and 9

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
	Forecast	Prior Observation	Consensus
Week of February 2
February 2
Personal Income - December	0.3%	0.4	0.3
Personal Spending	-0.1	0.6	-0.2
PCE Price Index	-0.3	-0.2	-0.3
Core PCE Price Index	0.0	0.0	0.0
Real Personal Spending	0.2	0.7
PMI Manufacturing Index - January	53.8	53.7	54.0
ISM (Mfg) - January	54.8	55.5	54.5
ISM Prices	40.0	38.5	39.5
Construction Spending - December	0.6%	-0.3	0.6
February 3
Factory Orders - December	-2.1%	-0.7	-2.2
Auto Sales* - January	16.80M	16.92	16.60
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence
February 4
ADP Employment Survey - January	220K	241.0	220
PMI Services Index - January	54.0	54.0	54.1
ISM Services - January	56.5	56.2	56.5
ISM Prices	49.3	49.5
ISM Business Activity	57.6	57.2
February 5
Initial Unemployment Claims	295K	265	290
International Trade - December	-$39.5B	-39.0	-37.9
Productivity - Q4 (p)	0.2%	2.3	0.2
Unit Labor Costs	1.6	-1.0	1.2
February 6
Nonfarm Payrolls - January	230K	252	230
Private	224	240	229
Unemployment	5.6%	5.6	5.6
Average Workweek	34.6Hr	34.6	34.6
Average Hourly Earnings	0.3%	-0.2	0.3
Consumer Credit - December	$15.3B	14.1	15.2
Week of February 9
February 10
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - January	100.4	100.4
Wholesale Inventories - December	0.0%	0.8	0.2
February 11
Treasury Budget - January	-$3.5B	1.9
February 12
Retail Sales - January	-0.2%	-0.9	0.3
Retail Sales, ex Autos	-0.3	-1.0	0.2
Retail Sales, Autos	-0.7
Business Inventories - December	-0.1%	0.3	0.2
February 13
Export Prices - February	-0.4%	-1.2	-0.7
Import Prices	-3.0	-2.5	-2.0
Import Prices, Ex-Petroleum	-0.4	0.1
Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (p)	98.1	98.1
Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business and former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission.