Lost in the hoopla of White House budgets and early release of Fed minutes is more evidence of an odd disconnect between people in the work force and the availability of jobs. Traditionally when there is a jump in people quitting, economists see it as a positive, a sign of confidence, the notion jobs are plentiful. In some niches of the economy that's actually true, but those areas aren't getting the bum's rush of new employees nor is there a groundswell of entrepreneurship. In other words, the historic reading of people quitting the jobs market probably doesn't apply at the moment.
Still, 2.16 million people quit their jobs in February, the most since 2008.
Economic projections from the White House, which are noticeably greater than most economists', don't paint the backdrop of an economy that sees people flocking to hang shingles or confident enough to split from a job because there's another right around the corner. This would be a great time for people to start businesses but there's a different feeling in the air this post-recession. Being successful, unless through sports, singing, dancing or acting, is frowned upon and the transition has been slowed with the speed bumps of taxes.
White House GDP estimates:
2013 2.0%
2014 3.2%
2016 3.6%
10-year average 2.9% (1947-2007 average 3.2%)
Unemployment is expected to drift slowly, hitting 5.4% by 2018.
Keep in mind some Fed officials want to leave accommodative policy in place until the unemployment rate reaches 5.5%, and that's assuming another 9 million people aren't compelled to abandon the job market for the sofa and wait out hardship on taxpayer dimes waiting for better opportunities to arise. While this is a serious issue there is also a pressing issue that must be addressed immediately.
Employers are demanding higher skills and Americans don't have them. So, while there is a push for so-called economic justice that would pay salaries well above free market levels to unskilled workers in an effort level the playing field, the fact is great paying jobs based on ability are going begging. These are the jobs that determine which countries enjoy the greatest prosperity in years to come.
Demanding Skills
It's not surprising hiring lagged job openings in education and healthcare, but in federal and state governments as well. This is somewhat shocking considering massive job losses, particularly on state and local levels. Hmm ... the same politicians that preach economic justice and browbeat employers into hires not suitable for certain jobs are being very selective themselves.
