Mona Charen
In 1994, in a close race for governor of Florida between Democrat Lawton Chiles and Republican Jeb Bush, a late blitz of robo calls may have put Chiles over the top. The calls, which Chiles at first disavowed, but later -- in the face of a subpoena -- acknowledged, were aimed at older voters. They "informed" voters that Bush's running mate favored eliminating Social Security and that Bush himself was a tax cheat. Neither was true. But Chiles won.

It's a hoary Democratic formula for winning elections -- frighten seniors that Republicans are gunning for their Social Security or Medicare -- and has been deftly deployed by Bill Clinton, Dick Gephardt, Nancy Pelosi, and countless others over the years. In 2010, some Republicans couldn't resist stealing the tactic themselves -- warning voters that Obamacare would result in cuts to Medicare. It wasn't a false charge -- Obamacare does slice $500 billion from Medicare to pay for its new entitlement -- but it was unseemly coming from the party that claims to be for fiscal responsibility.

In the wake of the stunning 2010 election and the triumph of the tea party in so many races, optimists imagined that the results might signal a new era in American political life -- a new maturity about the choices we face and a willingness to cut programs that are hurtling, Kamikaze-like, toward bankruptcy if not reformed.

Recent polling suggests that caution on that score is in order. A March CBS News poll asked Americans how serious a problem they considered the budget deficit to be. Sixty-eight percent described it as "very serious" and only 5 percent said "not too serious." Yet in a Washington Post/ABC News poll, Americans were asked whether they would support cuts in Medicare in order to reduce the national debt. Twenty-one percent said yes, and 78 percent said no (65 percent "strongly"). A Pew Research poll found that 65 percent opposed "changes to Medicare and Social Security" in order to reduce the budget deficit. Fully 72 percent favored raising taxes on those who earn more than $250,000.

The Post/ABC poll also asked about the future of Medicare. Should it "remain as a program with defined benefits" or "be changed to a program where people receive a check or voucher to shop for private health insurance"? The entire Republican caucus in the House having just voted to transform Medicare along those lines, Republicans may be disheartened to see the response: 65 percent favored keeping Medicare as is. Only 34 percent approved of a voucher plan.

Mona Charen

Mona Charen is a syndicated columnist, political analyst and author of Do-Gooders: How Liberals Hurt Those They Claim to Help .
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