Young voter trends have fascinated me ever since the Obama-McCain bloodbath of
2008. As bleak as the statistics were two years ago, I've been building a case that
Obama's youth landslide did not, and will not, guarantee permanent electoral or
ideological doom for conservatives among Millenials.
Virginia offers a case in point. In 2008, voters 18-29 in Virginia backed Obama over
McCain by a 21-point margin. One year later, the same cohort supported conservative
Republican Bob McDonnell for Governor by ten points--a 31-point (D) to (R) swing.
Last week, the New York Times ran a piece describing younger voters'
disenchantment with the Democratic Party. The lede captured the story's message:
The college vote is up for grabs this year — to an extent that would have seemed
unlikely two years ago, when a generation of young people seemed to swoon over
Barack Obama.
As the 2010 elections draw closer, some polls are vindicating the Times' report and my
instincts. For instance, we recently noted Kentucky Republican Senate candidate Rand
Paul's enormous lead among the youngest age bracket, and a survey in liberal California
offers some encouraging news for a top Republican statewide office-seeker.
Survey USA's poll of California voters conducted in late August and early September
reveals a 7-point lead for Republican gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman over
Democrat Jerry Brown, and a narrow 2-point advantage for GOP Senate hopeful Carly
Fiorina over incumbent Barbara Boxer.