Well, just about tied. The president currently leads Gov. Romney by one point:
President Obama and Mitt Romney are running neck-and-neck in vote-rich Florida, according to a new Mason-Dixon poll released on Saturday.
Obama leads Romney in the poll, 46 percent to 45 percent, well within the poll's margin of error. Two percent of likely voters say they would vote for former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson, who initially sought the Republican nomination but now intends to run as an independent. Seven percent are undecided. The poll was conducted for the Miami Herald, Tampa Bay Times, the Spanish-language El Nuevo Herald and two in-state cable news stations.
Each candidate wins more than 80 percent of voters in his own party, the poll shows. The two are virtually tied among independents, with Obama holding a statistically insignificant 5-point lead.
According to the data, Gov. Romney leads among male voters by 14 points, while President Obama leads among female voters by the same margin. He also leads among black voters by a wide margin (93% to Romney's 7%). Interestingly, Hispanic voters are the most divided. 49% are inclined to vote for President Obama and 42% support Governor Romney.
Overall, it sounds like Governor Romney has his work cut out for him in Florida. As the article notes, that is the swing state that will award the most electoral votes this year. In spite of the overall near tie, voters in Florida don't approve of the job that President Obama is doing, don't seem to think that the country is on the right track, and oppose the health care law by a slim majority. Independents may not be completely sold on Governor Romney yet, but there's no reason that he can't take these numbers and run with them.