...I suspect that Scozzafava’s withdrawal (or suspension, more accurately, since her name will stay on the ballot) hurts Bob Owens tremendously. According to the poll, Hoffman had attracted 50% of the Republican vote, while Owens had 2/3rds of the Democrats. Hoffman leads Owens among independents, 40%-35%, and the remaining 15% supporting Scozzafava will almost certainly break more towards Hoffman than Owens. Owens will likely get more of Scozzafava’s Democratic supporters, but she only had 11%, while 14% have already gone to Hoffman. Hoffman and Owens had a near-even split of the opposition in Scozzafava’s regional stronghold of Jefferson/Lewis/St. Lawrence counties, but I’d be surprised if Hoffman didn’t pick up more in those areas of disaffected Scozzafava voters, too.
Scozzy's Math
