Unfortunately, most observers (who have been doing nothing but vote counting) say that she doesn't. For the record, those vote counters include Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Real Clear Politics, Fox News, The Huffington Post, a top Pelosi aid, and your mother. I called her and checked. She's got a pretty firm stance.
Hanlon wrote a good blurb about how no one really knows what's in the bill. But that can't be the entire reason that no one knows if they can support it. After all, pro-life Stupak Democrats are only concerned about one thing. They're not even clear if that one thing can be remedied. Democrats who are concerned about corruption aren't sure if they can support it, given the plethora of back room deals. But those deals very well might go through. Pro public-option Democrats aren't sure if they can support the badly watered-down public option proposal. But no one has any clue as to the current incarnation of the public option in this bill.
In other words, not knowing is only half the battle. The other half is Democrats not trusting their leadership enough to take them at their word. Then there's unprecedented nature of the Senate procedural tricks needed to pass this behemoth. Then there's American public opinion. Then there's the 2010 mid-term elections. The environment of animosity and skepticism is at an all-time high.
The end result is that Nancy Pelosi is pretty much the only one who believes the votes are there. Actually, that's not quite right -- there's Pelosi, and the unicorn I keep as a pet inside my Townhall cubicle.
