A new poll says that Republicans might have a chance to take the governor’s seat in Oregon.
A Hoffman Research Group survey of 603 likely voters from May 11-12 gives Chris Dudley 48 percent to current Gov. Tina Kotek's 44 percent, just outside the ± four percent margin of error.
About 58 percent said that Oregon is on the wrong track. About 53 percent viewed Kotek unfavorably. The poll assumes that Dudley will face off against Kotek in the Nov. 3, 2026 election.
Oregon's primary is on May 19. Dudley is one of many Republican candidates, including Danielle Bethell, Hope Dalrymple, Ed Diehl, Christine Drazan, and Kyle Duyck.
Those running on the Democrat ticket include Forest Alexander, James Atkinson, Donnie Beckwith, and David Beem.
Oregon hasn’t elected a Republican governor since 1982.
Republicans take the lead in the race for governor in deep-blue Oregon, per Hoffman Research poll.
— Leading Report (@LeadingReport) May 16, 2026
Chris Dudley: 48%
Tina Kotek: 44%
🚨 JUST IN: Republican and former NBA player Chris Dudley LEADS Oregon governor's race against Gov. Tina Kotek (D), per a new poll
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) May 15, 2026
🔴 Chris Dudley: 48% (+4)
🔵 Gov. Tina Kotek: 44%
He wants no more men in women's sports
Flip red, Oregon!
Hoffman Research (R)
Democrats… pic.twitter.com/IqX7zrtUti
🚨 JUST IN: Former NBA star and Republican Chris Dudley is CRUSHING it, now LEADING radical Dem Gov. Tina Kotek in the Oregon Governor’s race!
— Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman) May 15, 2026
🔴 Dudley: 48% (+4)
🔵 Kotek: 44%
Oregon desperately needs a Republican governor. The state has turned to sht under Kotek. pic.twitter.com/q0GsUuS8PO
🚨JAW-DROPPING POLL: Republicans lead by 4% in the race for governor in deep-blue Oregon.
— Election Time (@ElectionTime_) May 16, 2026
Oregon - 2026 Governor
🟥Chris Dudley 48% (+4)
🟦Tina Kotek* 44%
If Dudley wins the Republican primary, polls suggest that Kotek—who is deeply unpopular—is finished.
Hoffman/Dudley | May… pic.twitter.com/nSxiNqqAp0
But then Oregon will have magical mail in voting and the democrat will win by 12%… https://t.co/dUpUUsaEOp
— Tim Young (@TimRunsHisMouth) May 15, 2026
New - Governor Poll - Oregon
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) May 15, 2026
🔴 Dudley 48%
🔵 Kotak (Inc) 44%
🔵 2024 results - Harris +15
Hoffman R #C (🔴) - LV - 5/12 pic.twitter.com/b32MCV8g4E