Tipsheet

Here's How Many Jobs the California Billionaire Tax Will Cost

Amy Curtis
Amy Curtis  |  April 28, 2026 7:30 AM

Yesterday, despite learning that California's proposed Billionaire Tax included a backdoor provision that would apply the tax to all Californians, the referendum gathered enough signatures to be on the November ballot.

This means that all Californians will eventually be subjected to a wealth tax that steals their money based on the value of all their assets, not just their income. Given home prices in the state, it's very possible a lot of people who signed this referendum will learn a very hard lesson in a few years' time, when they're forced to sell their property because they can't afford to pay a tax that was only meant to target billionaires.

But that's not the only economic repercussion this bill will have. A study shows that it will likely kill tens of thousands of jobs and sink revenue, too.

Here's more:

A controversial billionaire tax measure in California — which has secured enough signatures to appear on the November ballot — would devastate the state’s economy, a new study published Monday shows.

More than 108,000 jobs could be lost if the tax goes into effect, the analysis concluded, and $28 billion worth of wages would also be lost in California.

“For everyday Californians, these are not abstract numbers. They represent fewer career opportunities in the state’s most dynamic industries and in the businesses that serve them,” the report said.

The study was commissioned by Stop the Squeeze, a committee run by veteran consultants Dan Newman and Brian Brokaw to oppose the tax initiative. The two have ties to Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), who publicly opposes the tax.

...

However, the study estimated that at least 40 ultra-wealthy Californians would leave the state as a result, meaning half of the $2 trillion held by the state’s billionaires would be gone. Already, a number of them have announced they’ve left California.

When such individuals leave, there is a loss of jobs with offices relocated, a reduction in consumer consumption and disruption to future jobs that would have been created, the report said. Those factors help contribute to the more than 108,000 jobs lost.

It's entirely possible that the jobs lost will far exceed 100,000.

That is a safe bet.

And they'll get it good and hard, it seems.

Everyone. The legislature already knows this, hence the back-door provision.

"This is the predictable result of ignoring a basic economic reality: new taxes and higher rates on productive people don’t automatically deliver higher revenue," he wrote. "Capital and talent are mobile. When you punish success, it relocates. Middle class, get ready to pay up. The bill for these experiments always lands on those who can’t easily leave."