Tipsheet

Why Success in Iran Could Win Republicans the Midterms

Dmitri Bolt
Dmitri Bolt  |  March 03, 2026 2:00 PM

If Operation Epic Fury proves to be a decisive success, it could dramatically reshape the political landscape heading into the midterms, giving Republicans a real chance to break the familiar pattern of the party in power losing ground. 

Since January, the national conversation has centered almost entirely on Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), particularly events in Minnesota, where two American citizens lost their lives amid escalating tensions and clashes over federal enforcement. Whatever conservatives believed about the underlying issues, the episode did little to broaden Republican appeal. In fact, polling began to show that the president’s numbers were slipping as the controversies dominated headlines.

But the president's foreign policy could easily broaden his appeal.

Over the past several days, Iranian-Americans, who have historically leaned Democratic, have taken to the streets, chanting President Trump’s name after Operation Epic Fury reportedly killed Ayatollah Khamenei in an airstrike on the first day of combat. Supporters believe the strike could ultimately return control of Iran’s government to Iranians who have long sought freedom from the regime. 

That isn't a victory shared only by Iranian-Americans, but one that could spread to independents, and some Democrats who are tired of seeing the United States bullied on the world stage. 

While the president’s domestic agenda has delivered results, many of its most visible components, ICE raids, hardline immigration enforcement, and tariffs, tend to resonate primarily with voters who already lean right.

A decisive foreign-policy victory, by contrast, is far more difficult to frame as partisan. If Operation Epic Fury succeeds in toppling the Iranian regime, it would represent a development with broad strategic implications that extend beyond the usual ideological divides. The political contrast would also be stark, as Democrats have been placed in the uncomfortable position of appearing to criticize an operation aimed at a regime long associated with hostility toward the United States and regional instability. Similar to how the president used the Democrats' refusal to stand at the State of the Union in his favor.

Should Operation Epic Fury ultimately prove successful, Republicans would head into the midterms with far stronger momentum than they had before it began.