Tipsheet

The Minnesota Shooting Involving Border Patrol Is Going to Lead to a Government Shutdown

Matt Vespa
Matt Vespa  |  January 24, 2026 10:45 PM

We were already pinched for time with the winter storm slamming the South and the Mid-Atlantic states, but the recent shooting in Minneapolis involving the Border Patrol is going to derail any hope of avoiding another government shutdown. We’re cooked, folks. 

The House surprisingly pulled off a huge win, keeping ICE funding and most of the government through September. ICE funding actually got Democratic support, whereas the bills to fund the Departments of Defense, Health and Human Services, Labor, Transportation, and Housing and Urban Development sailed through on a 341-88 vote.  

The problem was the Senate, which could only fast-track these appropriations bills by agreeing to unanimous consent, which was unlikely to happen: some Democrat—or even Rand Paul—was going to object.  

Now, with this shooting and intense pressure from the Democratic Party base, there’s no way these bills are going to pass. As of now, this is dead on arrival. Senate Democrats are having a caucus conference call tomorrow evening. Republicans need Democratic support to clear the 60-vote hurdle. They don’t have it.  

From Fox News’ Chad Pergram: 

The sheer wall of opposition which is now mounting from Senate Democrats to the spending package before the Senate is making it increasingly likely there will be a partial government shutdown at 12:00:01 am on Saturday, January 31.  

The shooting today in Minnesota appears to have pushed some Democrats over the edge in opposition to funding DHS and ICE.  

It’s about the math.  

Democratic votes are necessary to hit 60 yeas and break a filibuster on bringing the multi-bill spending package to the floor. Democrats are necessary to break that filibuster. They will likely stymie that bill now. The Democratic base simply will not tolerate a yes vote from their Members.  

The House approved this measure Thursday. It funds 78 percent of all of government,

covering six spending measures. It includes the Pentagon as well as DHS/ICE.  

No procedural vote would happen until Wednesday at the earliest. That could change depending on the availability of senators because of the monster storm this week. Much of the country may struggle to move for a few days. 

Moreover, advancing this package through the House was a Herculean lift. The House is now gone. So the it’s impossible to revamp the package quickly.  

The chances of a partial shutdown increased geometrically in just the past few hours.  

The late British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan said the most important factors in politics were “events.” We’ve now had an “event.” And this could dramatically impact the course of government funding this week.

[…] 

A Senior Democratic Congressional source tells Fox today’s MN ICE shooting presents a “new wild card” in the fight over funding DHS and the rest of the federal government before the 11:59:59 pm et deadline on January 30.  

Fox is told this could further complicate an already challenging proposition to pass a government funding package by Friday night.  

Many Democrats were skeptical of voting for the measure because of issues involving ICE. It’s possible this could push opposition to the measure over the top.  

Sixty votes are necessary to fund the remaining 78 percent of the federal government, including DHS this week. That means Democratic votes are a necessity.  

The DHS bill is not a separate piece of legislation. The House glommed the remaining spending bills together, sent to the Senate and left town.  

So with the House gone, either the Senate passes the bill or government funding expires. 

So, after this winter storm, we face a legislative one on the Hill, and this time, Democrats aren’t likely to budge. No doubt the calls to nuke the legislative filibuster will be pitched by the Trump White House. Once again, it’s a bad idea.