Tipsheet

The Q3 US GDP Number Has Dropped...and the Media Are Calling It 'Unexpected'

Amy Curtis
Amy Curtis  |  December 23, 2025 9:00 AM

Here's some excellent news for your Tuesday morning. Following a delay in reporting, thanks to the Democrats' Schumer Shutdown, we now have the numbers for the GDP for Q3, and they've exceeded expectations, coming in at +4.3 percent.

"We're looking for 3.3. Zoom, zoom, zoom! 4.3 percent," said the CNBC host. "That is a nice jump."

This would be the strongest quarter since Q3 of 2023.

Consumer spending grew much faster than government purchases in Q3, adding 2.39 percentage points (while the government added just 0.39 percentage points).

Here's more from Axios:


The U.S. economy expanded at a 4.3% annualized pace in the third quarter, according to a government-shutdown delayed report from the Commerce Department on Tuesday.

Why it matter: Despite consumers' low marks on the Trump economy, growth was much stronger than expected, helped by stronger consumer spending and AI investment.

Zoom out: The third-quarter expansion follows the 3.8% annualized growth in the second quarter, after the economy shrunk by 0.6% in the first three months of the year.

  • Both of those figures were impacted by the effects of the tariffs.
  • At the start of the year, a rush to import goods before tariffs took effect weighed on GDP. The unwind of that activity helped boost growth in the second quarter.

The big picture: The solid GDP figure in the third quarter is somewhat at odds with a sluggish labor market that has prompted the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three times this year.

  • Strong growth has typically translated into strong hiring, but that hasn't been the case in recent months. Hiring has been slow, and over the summer, employers shed workers on net.

The bottom line: The economy had momentum heading into the final quarter of the year, a bragging point for the Trump administration that is seeking to sell its economic agenda.

Of course, expect the media to say this growth was "unexpected."

This is good news heading into 2026, when the economy will be a major factor in the midterm elections.