The gerrymandering wars are in full swing. Texas redrew its maps, potentially giving the GOP five additional seats. California is gunning to gerrymander its already gerrymandered state, which will prove worthless since there are more pickups in red states. That’s why Democrats are freaking out: they can’t go anywhere with these new maps. They’ve maxed out their seat potential. The New York Times tried to dish out some coping pills to liberals who were freaking out over Texas’ new map (via NYT):
🚨 BREAKING: It's now being reported that *EVEN IF* Gavin succeeds by redistricting California, Democrats will need to win the popular vote in 2026 by 2.3 points or more to barely take the House of Representatives, assuming the current red states move forward on redistricting.… pic.twitter.com/Dg8IvgGy1G
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 1, 2025
Despite plenty of gerrymandering, the winner of the popular vote was reasonably likely to win the most seats. But if the new maps are enacted in all of these states, Democrats will need to win the national popular vote by two or three percentage points to be favored to retake the House, according to projections based on recent congressional and presidential election results.
A two-to-three-point structural advantage for the G.O.P. is meaningful, but pretty modest. With Democrats leading by four points in the national generic ballot polls today, the party would still be favored to win next year’s midterm election. The Republicans wouldn’t stand much of any chance at all of surviving a so-called “wave” election, like in 2018, when Democrats won the House popular vote by seven points.
But while Democrats would be favored if the election were held tomorrow, the race for the House would be significantly more competitive on the new maps. Even if the Democrats won, the likeliest outcome would be a piecemeal seat-by-seat battle in which control of the chamber would come down to a fairly small number of seats. The race might not be called for days. Democrats wouldn’t have much margin for error: A few mediocre Democratic recruits, some ill-timed retirements, an unexpected demographic shift or even plain bad luck in contests with razor-thin margins could be enough to give Republicans control even if the G.O.P. loses the popular vote by a modest margin.
And if the Democrats’ popular vote advantage turns out to be much less than four points, the new maps could give the Republicans the advantage. Democrats, for instance, might not be able to get away with their own version of the G.O.P.’s disappointing “red ripple” election in 2022 and still win. They might not win if 2026 is like the narrow Democratic victory from 2020, either. Indeed, each of the last three congressional elections was decided by three points or less in the national popular vote, with the winner prevailing by less than seven seats.
First, it’s too early to discuss this type of stuff seriously. But if you want to torture yourself, this is prime reading material. The Democrats can’t win a redistricting war with us. They know it. Right now, Indiana, Ohio, and Missouri are drafting new maps. Every red state that can do so should follow suit, because this is where we’re heading. Gerrymandering was always legal. Every state does it; both parties engage in it. Let’s maximize it.