President-elect Donald J. Trump did not waste time triggering the Washington establishment with his cabinet selections. The intelligence community is also apoplectic over Tulsi Gabbard being tapped as director of national intelligence. Yet, it’s former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. that’s triggered the media, the Democrats, and squishy Republicans the most. Kennedy and Gaetz were nominated as secretary of Health and Human Services and attorney general. Do they have the votes? Right now, likely not, with reports that Gaetz has 30 “no” votes among Republican senators.
Yet, that could change—this is the preseason stage of confirmation politics. A lot can happen of the course of the next couple of months. Ex-MSNBC analyst Mark Halperin, who was right about Biden dropping out of the 2024 race and Kamala Harris potentially losing all seven swing states based on brutal private polling he reviewed, said it’s more likely that all of Trump’s picks get confirmed. Granted, he later weaved about, adding that it could be a 3-to-two split, but which two—who knows? Will these individuals be subjected to an FBI background check? The point is that Trump has a mandate, winning both the Electoral College and the popular vote, and he’s a master of the bully pulpit. There will be votes that change. Moreover, Halperin adds that there are Republican senators who have constituents, donors, and the like who want jobs with the Trump administration; not good retail politics if you’re seen as the person who sunk Trump’s nominees.
“Really smart people who understand Capitol Hill and politics and confirmation history say Gaetz is going to be confirmed,” says @MarkHalperin. “Kennedy is going to be confirmed. Because for one thing, every Republican senator has constituents, donors, staff, family members in… pic.twitter.com/gMxXuTdyjm
— 2WAY (@2waytvapp) November 15, 2024
“There’s the reality that it's an incoming Republican president who won the popular vote,” says @MarkHalperin. “I continue to weigh in, or put my finger on the side of, that I think it's more likely all five will be confirmed than most people do.”#Trump #Gaetz #RFK @2waytvapp pic.twitter.com/7h9SIoLEII
— 2WAY (@2waytvapp) November 15, 2024
Halperin’s sources have been spot-on for some of this year's most significant election stories. He has people saying all five will be confirmed, but we’re not sure until some of these picks get closer to 50 votes. Again, it’s wait-and-see, but he was adamant that outright dismissal isn’t the proper analysis. He also offered his theory, which is that Kennedy and Gaetz were nominated to draw the media attention away from what they wanted to do on a policy level, whether that be making the Trump tax cuts permanent or ramping up mass deportation of illegal aliens. These nomination fights will soak up all media attention throughout January.
It’s too late to speculate. For now, the president-elect has made his nomination, as he’s entitled to do, and let’s see how the process plays out.
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UPDATE: Screw the FBI.
New: Trump’s transition team is bypassing traditional FBI background checks for at least some Cabinet picks while using private companies to vet potential candidates for admin jobs, sources tell us.
— Zachary Cohen (@ZcohenCNN) November 15, 2024
More w/ @evanperez, @KristenhCNN & @HolmesLybrand https://t.co/srfHzUBHEb