Tipsheet

Analysis: How Many Senate Seats Will Republicans Control When All the Votes Are Counted?

Guy Benson
Guy Benson  |  November 08, 2024 12:01 PM

Some dynamics remain in flux, days after the election, largely due to certain states' preposterous and credibility-harming vote counting processes.  As of this writing, Republicans will control 53 Senate seats in the new Congress, to the Democrats' 47.  That would be a net gain of four seats for the GOP.  It is still possible, but does not look terribly likely, that Arizona's Kari Lake could come back and win her contest out in Arizona, where an embarrassingly large chunk of the vote remains uncounted at this hour.  But that outcome would be a surprise.  Some outlets have called Nevada's Senate race for incumbent Jacky Rosen, who appears to have survived a robust challenge from wounded warrior Sam Brown.  Donald Trump carried both of those states, but Republican Senate candidates lagged behind his totals.  It was the same story in Michigan and Wisconsin, where Democrats barely staved off strong runs from Mike Rogers and Eric Hovde, respectively.  Brown, Rogers and Hovde were all ahead on (and after) election night, only to see slow-counting Democratic ballots overtake them.  

In Wisconsin, a major part of the story was the presence of 'right wing' candidates on the ballot, siphoning off right-leaning votes from the Republican.  Embattled incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin won by around 29,000 votes, and less than one percentage point.  A pair of independent/libertarian and 'America First' candidates have combined for more than two percent of the vote, and approximately 71,000 raw votes.  Support for the 'America First' spoiler -- boosted by Democratic donor money -- accounts for nearly all of Baldwin's margin.  For reference, there were zero left-leaning alternative candidates on the ballot in Wisconsin's Senate race.  This quite literally made the difference.  Even though Trump's victories were too sweeping to manipulate or overcome, Democratic meddling continues to pay dividends for them, as it did in 2022.  Republicans will either figure out how to aggressively adjust, or continue to lose winnable races.

On the positive side for the GOP, netting four seats in the upper chamber is a very big deal.  With a Republican administration incoming, all they technically needed to do was win back a single seat, to push to a 50-50 tie, in which Vice President Vance would break deadlocks.  If the Harris ticket had won, they would have needed a two-seat gain to achieve a majority.  They doubled that number.  This accomplishment started by holding every single Republican-held seat that was up this cycle.  The closest margin ended up being in Nebraska, where incumbent Deb Fischer fairly narrowly held off an 'independent' challenger who claimed to have no partisan alliance whatsoever, but for whom Chuck Schumer was rooting.  The seats Democrats poured money into were in Texas and Florida.  Despite some competitive polling, neither race ended up being close.  The final RealClearPolitics polling averages showed Ted Cruz and Rick Scott each leading by about 4.5 points heading into the election.  Cruz almost doubled that margin.  Scott won by nearly 13 points.  These were not close.

West Virginia was off the board as soon as Joe Manchin announced his retirement, and the seat was called for Republican Jim Justice as soon as polls closed.  He won by more than 40 points.  That was seat 50.  The next seat to be called was for Bernie Moreno in Ohio, where polls suggested it was very close.  Trump led in the polling average by around nine points in the Buckeye State; he won it by more than 11 points.  That was far too dominant for even a multi-term incumbent like Democrat Sherrod Brown to survive.  Brown trailed by a point-and-a-half in the polling average.  He lost by four points.  That's seat 51, a majority.  In Montana, as expected, phony moderate Jon Tester's luck finally ran out.  Combat veteran and conservative Tim Sheehy beat him soundly.  The polls were spot-on.  Seat 52.  Then came the biggest upset: Pennsylvania.  Republican Dave McCormick had his work cut out for him against a three-term incumbent with a famous last name in the state.  McCormick painted Bob Casey and a weak, unaccomplished, hypocritical rubber-stamp for the Democratic Party.  It worked.  After running perhaps the most impressive campaign anywhere in the country, including producing some of the most effective ads I've seen -- hitting both Casey and Kamala Harris -- McCormick has very narrowly prevailed:


Seat 53.  It took the media quite a while to call the race for McCormick, but the math for a Casey win simply didn't exist.  Casey has so far refused to concede, hoping for a recount to be triggered -- an ignominious conclusion to a lackluster and unremarkable Senate career.  But that race is over.  Again, it's remotely possible that the GOP may tack on a 54th seat, but I wouldn't bet on it.  It was important for Republicans to pad a lead as much as possible this cycle because 2026 and 2028 are more challenging maps for them, in terms of what seats they'll need to defend.  Also, having a bit of a cushion is important for upcoming confirmation battles over Trump cabinet picks, and quite possibly even more significant positions:

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Buckle up.  Finally, Senate Republicans will be led by someone other than Mitch McConnell in 2025, as the Kentuckian is stepping away from leadership to serve out the remainder of his term as a rank-and-file member.  McConnell is the longest serving leader of any party in Senate history.  Despite some of the gripes from the GOP base against him, his deep knowledge of tactics and procedure should be an important resource to whomever succeeds him  -- likely John Cornyn of Texas or John Thune of South Dakota, with Rick Scott of Florida also running.