When this dropped over the weekend, all you could do was laugh. In Iowa, a ruby-red state, Kamala Harris leapfrogged Donald Trump in the waning days of the 2024 election. That’s like saying Florida is in play or Montana—it’s simply not true. It was rightly criticized, as we would have seen a ramp-up to the flip months ago. You don’t go from Trump+18 to Kamala +3—we’d see that in the polling over the summer. There’s no ambush here. Many were wondering if the poll by Ann Selzer, who is credible, isn’t being skewed by nonresponse bias.
When pressed about the crosstabs, Selzer didn’t know what they were, or at the very least, couldn’t read the breakdown when asked about it on Mark Halperin’s show:
Political genius Ann Selzer appears confused over what the “R” and “D” letters refer to in polling cross tabs pic.twitter.com/R7iADsusbT
— Tom Elliott (@tomselliott) November 3, 2024
"What does this D represent, and the R represent?" - America's greatest pollster pic.twitter.com/RFzSi6MGZl
— SuperHario64 (@SuperHario64) November 3, 2024
Beginning to think she doesn’t actually do her own polling. https://t.co/cyPeA8fDWb
— Bonchie (@bonchieredstate) November 4, 2024
In 2020, Trump won Kansas seniors by 19, but we had a series of polls saying Kansas could be a nail biter in part because they were off with seniors by double digits. pic.twitter.com/vd5wwhdX7f
— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) November 4, 2024
(Clears throat) especially among seniors https://t.co/WU3ouvWI0w
— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) November 3, 2024
For the indies to move nothing, she’s saying Republicans are shifting further to left than independents.
— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) November 3, 2024
Yeah, something is off, no?
Iowa according to Ann Selzer apparently pic.twitter.com/GTCIARM03C
— BeshearStan 🥥🌴 (@BeshearStan) November 3, 2024
Regardless, it's time to vote. The only poll that matters now is the one on Election Day.