Tipsheet

Kamala Is in Serious Trouble in Michigan

Matt Vespa
Matt Vespa  |  October 23, 2024 6:50 AM

Enough with the red mirage of 2022, which has become the Democrats’ favorite crutch amid a failing Kamala Harris campaign. You cannot compare a midterm and presidential election cycle—it’s beyond absurd that some, especially pollsters, take this pivot seriously. When Trump is on the ballot, the dynamics change. That’s undeniable, but I also understand it’s a coping mechanism. 

Democrats thought Kamala would be crushing Donald Trump. Now, two weeks from Election Day, she’s looking shaky along the Blue Wall, her campaign is bearish in North Carolina, and things are not shaping up too well in Nevada, where Republican early voting has reached levels never seen in the Reid Machine era. And now, we have aides saying it’s a five-alarm fire in Michigan (via NBC News): 

Recent discussions have centered on the possibility of an anomaly happening this year with just part of the blue wall breaking its way. The conversations have focused on whether Michigan or Wisconsin “fall” to former President Donald Trump while the two other states go blue, according to three sources with knowledge of the campaign’s strategy. 

Losing Wisconsin or Michigan would mean that even if Harris secures Pennsylvania — where both Harris and Trump have spent the most time and resources — she would not reach the necessary 270 electoral votes to win the White House without winning another battleground state or possibly two. 

“There has been a thought that maybe Michigan or Wisconsin will fall off,” said a senior Harris campaign official, who stressed that the bigger concern is over Michigan. Two other people with knowledge of campaign strategy — who, like others in this article, were granted anonymity to speak candidly — also underscored deep concern about Michigan. Those people still believe that all the states are close and that there are alternative routes to victory. 

[…] 

But also potentially troubling for Democrats: What Harris’ campaign had thought was one of its best insurance possibilities may also be in peril. Just a few weeks ago, several Harris advisers in interviews pointed to the combination of electoral votes from North Carolina and Nevada as a strong alternative path for Harris should Trump win Pennsylvania and claim its 19 electoral votes. 

While North Carolina is still in the campaign’s sights and Democrats maintain strong organization and leadership there, the Harris team is far less bullish about victory, four people with knowledge of the dynamics said. 

“Of all of the seven [states], that one seems to be a little bit slipping away,” the Harris campaign official said of North Carolina. 

[…] 

Since Harris’ entry, the campaign has looked at the blue wall states as central to her election path, but it has also considered states like Nevada as essential in bulking up a win even if Democrats uphold the blue wall, in case legal challenges arise, according to three campaign officials. 

In the remaining states of Nevada, Arizona and Georgia, the election remains close or Harris is down, according to public polling. Surveys have found Trump leading in Arizona and Georgia and Harris slightly up in Nevada. 

The underreported angle in the final weeks is the reported lack of enthusiasm for Kamala by Arab Americans. Some polls have Trump leading Harris with this voter group by four points, and the Gaza War is fracturing Democrats. Yet, two things are damning: one was the MSNBC focus group of Muslim voters who said they’re not backing Kamala and there’s nothing she can do to change their minds. They also said they’re aware of the narrative by liberals that Trump hates them. They felt safe under his administration, not so much now. And then, there was this gut-punch on CNN:

These are developments no Democrat wants heading into Election Day. It’s not over, but Trump is undeniably in the best position ever to win this thing. Everyone needs to keep grinding, pounding, and voting.