Tipsheet

We Know Why Dems Trotted Out Barack Obama to Shame Black Men

Matt Vespa
Matt Vespa  |  October 15, 2024 6:30 AM

We know why Democrats trotted out Barack Obama last week, shaming black men for not hopping aboard the Kamala Harris train. He made that position clear in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The internal polling for Kamala must be atrocious for Mr. Obama, who is averse to such desperation tactics, to be making such uncharacteristic swipes at a core Democratic voter group. Not long after this lecture, CNN’s Harry Enten dug into the numbers—it’s not good. Kamala Harris will be the worst-performing Democrat among black voters since 1960.

It's not just black men; black women are also drifting away, albeit in much smaller numbers. In 2012, Obama won black men aged 18-44 by 81 points. Kamala only has a 41-point margin in 2024. Black men support Harris by 54 points overall, but that’s down from Obama’s 2012 figure, which sat at a solid 85 points. Base turnout will decide this election—these aren’t good figures. Obama won black women by 93 points in 2012. Kamala sits at 71 points in 2024 (via RCP Video): 

This is one of them. This is the Democratic margin among black men under the age of 45 in presidential elections. You go back to November of 2012, you see Obama by 81. Clinton only won them by 63. Then we're all the way down to Biden last time around -- 53 -- a tremendous drop-off. And then you take a look at the average of the most recent polls. Kamala Harris is up by only 41 points. That is about half the margin that Obama won them by back in November of 2012. 

When Barack Obama went last week to Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania to essentially talk to young black men, he made it seem like it was a Kamala Harris-specific problem, but this is part of a longstanding trend of young black men moving away from the Democratic Party. Kamala Harris is just the latest to face that magnitude of younger black men going toward Republicans. 

[...] 

How about black men overall? It's part of the same picture. We're looking once again, if younger black men, it looks like the worst Democratic performance since 1960 since JFK vs. Nixon. It's the same thing among black men overall. Again, part of a similar trend, but here actually the drop-off isn't as dramatic, right? Obama won by 85. Then you see 71 for Clinton, 69 for Biden, basically the same thing, holding steady, but here again very, very weak -- only a 54-point margin for Kamala Harris. 

[…] 

Now again, these are large margins, but the bottom line is when you're talking about the base of the debris product party, you would think that Kamala Harris would do very well among black women, based upon history. And of course, she would be the first black woman president, but she's actually doing the worst for a Democratic candidate among black women since 1960, if this holds. 

Meanwhile, in a new NBC News poll, Kamala lost five points in a month, which showed that the race was dead-locked at 48/48. Kamala’s favorability also dipped nine points in that same period. 

Just brutal.