There’s a good chance former President Donald Trump will need the fireworks twice-failed presidential candidate Hillary Clinton planned to use in 2016 after a new poll shows his probability of defeating Vice President Kamala Harris has risen by ten points.
A J.L. Partners election model is making a bold prediction ahead of the 2024 election. Its forecast found that Trump’s chances of securing enough votes to win in November have increased by four points since Monday and nine points since the presidential debate.
The model considered the latest poll data, years' worth of election results, and economic indicators to calculate which candidate has the best chance of securing the electoral college. It produced about 8,000 probabilities of each candidate winning a state and the probability the candidates win the Electoral College.
While the model’s results show Harris winning the popular vote, historically blue swing states all tilt toward Trump. This means he would beat Harris over 50 percent of the time in various scenarios.
The model predicted the 45th president would claim victory in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, giving him a 55.2 percent chance of winning while giving Harris only 44.6 percent.
Callum Hunter, data scientist at J.L. Partners, suggested Harris’ “honeymoon,” which she welcomed after announcing her run, is drying up.
“Things are continuing to move against Harris,” Hunter said. “While September saw her gain ground as a result of the debate and changes in ballot access, things have started to settle back to where they were at the start of September.”
While the race will be close, Callum predicted that if the current trend continues in Trump’s favor as it is now, the former president will take a significant lead over Harris in the next few weeks.
“September seems to have been Harris' high point, and trends suggest that this high has come to an end,” he added.
New polling data from Prolific showed that while Harris has gained ground in swing states, Trump’s base remains resilient— especially after the second attempted assassination on him. The survey found that among Republicans, 90 percent of voters are still planning to vote for Trump— up four percent since early this month.
“This election is unlike any other we’ve seen in modern history. As both Harris and Trump solidify their core support, the real battleground lies in a swing state and among young, undecided voters,” Andrew Gordon, Senior Research Consultant at Prolific, said. “The final weeks… will be the critical tipping point in determining the future direction of the country.”