Tipsheet

Will the Whole Election Boil Down to This?

Guy Benson
Guy Benson  |  September 27, 2024 12:01 PM

With fewer than 40 days to go until November 5th, the 2024 presidential race looks extremely close.  Two enormous questions stand out as we enter the home stretch: First, will Democrats' ground game and ballot operation once again significantly outpace the GOP's capabilities?  And second, will polling once again underestimate Donald Trump's support?  If Democrats' mechanics prove substantially superior for another consecutive cycle, that could very well help them grind out a victory if the contest is extremely close in a handful of states.  And if we see another polling miss in which Trump surpasses projections, even modestly, he'll be the favorite to win.  On the first front, it's possible that Republicans have closed the gap with Democrats, whose massive advantages on early voting and non-election-day forms of casting ballots have propelled them to recent victories.  It's also possible that pollsters have corrected for their 2016 and 2020 errors and are more accurately measuring public sentiment this time.  Or maybe these two dynamics are going to look familiar.  

Let's say, for the sake of argument, that the public polling is at least in the ballpark what the results will ultimately look like (again, a 2016 or 2020-level polling miss in the same direction would mean Trump is a clear favorite, as he's polling notably better at this stage of 2024 than he did in either of the previous two cycles in which he was on the ballot).  As of this writing, Kamala Harris appears to be slightly favored in Michigan and Wisconsin.  Donald Trump looks to be a nose ahead in Georgia and Arizona.  Joe Biden carried all four of these states last time out.  North Carolina and Nevada are quite close.  Let's presume, again for the sake of argument, that they end up falling into the same columns they did in 2020 (Tar Heel State red, Silver State blue).  All else being equal, that would put the Electoral College count at a nail-biting 262 to 257, with Trump ahead.  The magic number to hit, of course, is 270 electoral votes, which means the whole ballgame would come down to Pennsylvania's batch of 19.  

It's no surprise, therefore, that each campaign is parked in the Keystone State.  Donald Trump is telling his PA supporters to take advantage of early voting -- a departure from his past messaging -- and flat-out stating that if he can win their state, he'll be the next president:


He's very plausibly correct. And man, does this critical prize look excruciatingly close:


Democrats have done well in Pennsylvania since Trump's 2016 upset of Hillary Clinton there, They over-performed expectations in 2022. So maybe Democrats have good cause to feel good about their chances in an ostensibly tied contest. The 2020 polling average in PA proved quite accurate (unlike other places, particularly Wisconsin), whereas it missed Trump's surprise 2016 win by about three percentage points.  On the other hand, there are some indications that the GOP is cutting into previous Democratic advantages:

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In some key places, Republicans are registering more new voters and improving their early voting and mail-in metrics. Perhaps they're just cannibalizing their would-be Election Day voting edge (though banking as many votes as possible is undoubtedly a good thing). Or perhaps they're doing what they need to do to win. Time will tell. I'll leave you with a new Pennsylvania ad from GOP Senate nominee Dave McCormick (who is either tied, or down eight points, or anywhere in between, depending on which survey you look at), as well as this expose of a Harris spot running in the state:

Lange and Chadwick who co-own Sugartown Strawberries in Malvern, PA and Bob Lange serves as the chair of the three member Willistown Township, Chester County Board of Supervisors. They are prolific regular donors to DEMOCRATS for over a decade. Chadwick who at the time listed her employer as Arden Theatre Co. donated twice to ActBlue in 2016. Lange is a prolific donor to Democrats including Bob Casey, John Fetterman, and Hillary Clinton back in 2016. He is also a donor to ActBlue. FEC records are attached.

Fascinating 'lifelong Republicans' to feature.