Before we get to the latest developments in Maryland's Senate race, let's check back in on the overall landscape for the battle for control of Congress' upper chamber. The most vulnerable GOP-held seats are in Texas and Florida, which gives us a sense of how slim the pickings are for Democrats to go on offense. Republican incumbents Ted Cruz and Rick Scott are each leading in their respective races, with recent polls giving them modest advantages. If I had to guess, I'd anticipate Cruz winning by mid-single-digits, and Scott winning by a similar, or even possibly larger, margin. Nothing should be taken for granted, of course, as GOP under-performances have stung in crucial Senate races over recent cycles, but Team Red should be favored to hold all of its in-cycle seats this year. In the blue column, Joe Manchin's West Virginia seat is considered gone by both parties, as neither side is seriously contesting that race. All else being equal, that would be seat number 50 for Republicans. As for a crucial 51st seat, which would guarantee a majority, this battle is looking most favorable:
Put this race in the bank. Good work by all who got it there. Time for donors to replicate that whatever-it-takes, all-in mentality on PA, OH, NV, & VA, where R candidates are getting out-spent. A 51 seat majority will be hard to defend in 2026. Gotta get 53+! https://t.co/I34hFAZKVM
— Brad Todd (@BradOnMessage) September 24, 2024
Sheehy is a quality challenger who has made an aggressive case against Jon Tester as a phony 'moderate' who rubber-stamps his party's agenda nearly all of the time, especially when the cards are down. We call Tester 'Schumer with a flat top haircut' because he looks like a Montana moderate, and he runs ads every six years pretending to be something other than what his record reflects in DC. Tester votes like Chuck Schumer. And if the polls are accurate, his days doing so are numbered. I won't go so far as the Republican operative quoted above calling this face-off 'in the bank' for the party, but it's looking pretty strong. He's absolutely right to say that the GOP would do itself a world of good by banking as many seats with the exceedingly favorable 2024 Senate map as possible, given the much tougher cycles ahead. Padding any sort of majority wouldn't just be important for the next two years; it's also a hedge against possible Democratic gains in 2026 and beyond. Ohio may be the next best shot for Republicans, as another recent poll showed Bernie Moreno edging ahead of Sherrod Brown in the Buckeye State:
🚨 #BREAKING: BERNIE MORENO LEADS OHIO SENATE RACE, new poll shows
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 22, 2024
🔴 Moreno: 51.1% (+2.2)
🔵 Brown: 48.9%
ActiVote | Sept. 4 | N=400LV pic.twitter.com/ukxOgLSrhI
Other polls show the Democrat still ahead, albeit narrowly in several data sets. Brown has a strong political brand and operation in Ohio, but Trump will likely carry the state by seven-to-ten points again, which could help Moreno overtake Brown. That's a really important race. Others like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, and elsewhere are also in the mix, with some polling showing a few of those races very tight or even tied. Then there's on-paper longshot Larry Hogan in Maryland. He's a moderate Republican and very popular former governor running in one of the bluest states in the country. Biden absolutely crushed Trump there, and Harris will do the same. Can Hogan somehow overcome those partisan headwinds? Some polls show the race very competitive. And now a tax scandal has hit Hogan's Democratic opponent:
Angela Alsobrooks, the Democratic nominee for US Senate in Maryland, improperly took advantage of tax breaks she did not qualify for, including one meant for low-income senior citizens, saving thousands of dollars in taxes on two properties she owned in Washington, DC, and in Maryland. A CNN review of property records and tax bills shows that for both properties, Alsobrooks claimed for more than a decade a homestead tax exemption that is meant to apply only to someone’s primary residence, violating state and local tax relief requirements. She also improperly claimed a senior citizens’ tax break on her Washington property, cutting the tax bill in half. Alsobrooks, 53, never qualified for that tax break, but her grandparents, who owned the property before her, likely did. A senior adviser for Alsobrooks told CNN that she was unaware of the problem and that her attorneys are working with both Washington and Prince George’s County, Maryland, to resolve the issue.
Alsobrooks saved nearly $14,000 in taxes between 2005 and 2017 on her northeast Washington property by using tax exemptions meant for the district’s primary residents, lower income residents and senior citizens, according to property tax bills reviewed by CNN. But she did not live in Washington, according to public records. Since 1995, she has been registered to vote in Prince George’s County, where she’s been a longtime government official. She’s currently the county executive there, where she oversees the county’s budget and its tax collection division...Alsobrooks’ campaign pointed out Hogan also received a tax break on his Edgewater, Maryland, home in 2016 while living in the governor’s mansion in Annapolis. But governors and federal employees are exempt from the residency requirements.
What an incredibly lame pushback attempt that is, at the end of the excerpt. In my view (and this isn't an original thought), tax scandals for Democrats should be treated like sex scandals for socially conservative Republicans. We're seeing hypocrisy and other problematic content laid bare in the North Carolina gubernatorial race, with national media paying lots of attention to a bombastic social conservative being caught up in an embarrassing situation. The coverage should be similar when tax-enthusiastic Democrats are exposed as failing to pay their 'fair share,' or at the very least what they owe. The Hogan campaign has released a series of questions for their opponent, in light of these revelations, and she should be forced to reckon with them:
1. The excuse offered by the Alsobrooks campaign suggests she was “unaware of any tax credits attached to that property.” But Angela Alsobrooks is not some run-of-the-mill citizen easily tripped up by common real estate transactions. In her long history as a career politician, Alsobrooks served as the Executive Director of the Revenue Authority of Prince George's County from 2004-2010. High atop the Mission Statement of the Revenue Authority is their role, “as a real estate development and development finance agency.” In other words, Alsobrooks either should have known better or she is not being forthcoming about what transpired. How does Alsobrooks explain running a taxpayer-funded real estate finance agency while failing to do basic due diligence on her own real estate taxes?
2. The CNN report notes that Alsobrooks, “improperly claimed a senior citizens’ tax break on her Washington property, cutting the tax bill in half,” saving her nearly $14,000 in taxes between 2005 and 2017. While taking advantage of tax loopholes she’s not entitled to, Alsobrooks is pursuing a policy agenda that includes punitive tax hikes on everyone else. For example, her web site declares her support for raising the cap on Social Security payroll taxes, a scheme that would cost Marylanders billions in higher taxes. Alsobrooks supports Elizabeth Warren’s wealth tax. And, Alsobrooks indicated on an NEA candidate survey that she did not support repealing the cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions passed as part of Donald Trump’s 207 tax cuts – a position that puts her out of step with the majority of Maryland’s congressional delegation. How does Angela Alsobrooks justify trying to raise taxes on Maryland seniors while unlawfully claiming a tax break intended for low-income seniors?
Alsobrooks excuse is that she didn't know anything about the fraudulent tax breaks she's claimed and benefitted from. As Team Hogan asks, though, "how does Alsobrooks explain running a taxpayer-funded real estate finance agency" with "revenue authority" while not adhering to the law in her own life? Will she answer any questions about this? And will Maryland voters care that a pro-tax-hike Democrats has apparently been dodging her own taxation 'fair share' for years?
