For Democrats who pined for Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, this is a moment for you, though I don’t think Donald Trump takes this state despite coming within a hair of it in 2016. New surveys show the Harris-Walz ticket didn’t get a bump from their convention. Mr. Walz could be hurting Ms. Harris in his home state, where the vice president had a healthy 10-point lead over Mr. Trump. It’s now 48-43 (via NY Post):
Kamala Harris’ bet on Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz has actually lost her ground in his home state.
That’s the takeaway from new polling of 635 Likely Voters from Minnesota’s KSTP, which found that the Democratic presidential nominee’s advantage over Donald Trump has been cut in half since she picked Walz as her running mate last month and showcased the ticket at the Democratic National Convention.
Harris now leads Trump 48% to 43%, a significant decline for her from the previous survey that showed her up 50% to 40%.
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This is particularly remarkable given that this was a poll that included more Democrats than Republican respondents — with Dems making up 40% of the sample, Republicans 35%, and independents the remainder.
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Only 52% of Minnesota voters see him as an excellent or good choice, with 12% saying he’s a fair selection, and a staggering 34% saying he’s a poor pick.
Walz is underwater with men, with 49% approving of his selection and 50% opposing it. About 40% of male respondents called him a poor choice running mate.
Voters under the age of 35, a key demographic Harris needs in November, also aren’t enthusiastic. 49% called Walz an excellent or good pick; the other 51% regarded him unfavorably. These voters make up 25% of the anticipated November electorate.
Walz is also one percentage point underwater with parents, with 48% regarding him favorably and 49% panning the pick. 35% of people with children say he was a poor selection.
The flip side of the pro-Shapiro camp among Democrats is that while his selection could’ve set into motion Democrats locking up Pennsylvania, which looks like the ballgame come election night, reports are that Mr. Shapiro was conflicted about leaving office. He also didn’t have a good interview and likely didn’t want his stock wrecked by this do-over circus within his party this cycle. Shapiro has presidential ambitions of his own, or at least we shouldn’t be shocked if he decides to run in the future.
Also, Harris couldn’t pick him even if she wanted to because he’s Jewish, and the young wing of the Democratic Party is virulently anti-Israel and antisemitic. She had to appease this soft Nazi wing by picking super-weird Walz, who added nothing to the ticket that wasn’t already there: Harris alone checked the left-wing cuckoo extremism box.
Trump within five points of Harris in Minnesota is interesting. It makes for some funny talking points, but it’s not a battleground state. Focus on attacking Harris and Walz and their records. And focus on the swing states that Trump can win, especially Pennsylvania.