It’s early, but I’m not afraid of Kamala Harris. No Republican should, but we cannot get too cocky. Harris owns the Biden record too, though the GOP might have a project regarding inflation, which we’ll revisit later today—voters don’t hold her accountable for ‘Bidenflation.’ Meet the new candidate, the same as the old candidate who happens to be up six points over Trump—that should be the mindset.
As of now, Donald Trump is stronger politically than ever before. CNN’s Harry Enten broke down the numbers, rehashing what many of us knew: Biden was heading for total defeat. There was no way to salvage that campaign, which was running out of money and allies. The switch is a Hail Mary attempt and the only option if the Democrats wanted a reset. Harris doesn’t poll that much better against Trump, and some of these surveys grossly oversample Democrats. Trump leads Harris with independents by 14 points.
Beating Trump won't be easy. His favorable rating is higher now than it has ever been (per two polls taken over the weekend).
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 23, 2024
Harris may poll better than Biden did against Trump, but Trump is running 5 points ahead nationally against her than he finished against Biden in 2020. pic.twitter.com/cnOtUKtWXe
Facts: Harris was polling better than Biden in recent NYT polls in swing states. Fact: The vast majority of Democrats would be satisfied with her as the nominee.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 21, 2024
Definitely risky making the substitution, but Biden was leading Trump 0% of the time this year. pic.twitter.com/rRJDIjMWct
Joe Biden has led on zero days in 2024. This is the total opposite of 2020 when Biden led every day up up this point. The two candidates are very known, so little movement isn't surprising.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 19, 2024
Biden's problems aren't momentary and aren't merely because of a bad debate performance. pic.twitter.com/wRLt28UYPN
Pre-debate Biden led Trump just 1% of the time in Google Searches in 2024. Since the debate? 87% of days.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 12, 2024
Turning this race into a referendum on himself is bad for Biden... because unlike what he has suggested no incumbent has come back approval ratings as bad as he has. pic.twitter.com/uzBEf5RP84
Who knows what could happen in the next 15 weeks, but if the boost in funding and enthusiasm collapses by Labor Day after Harris’ candidacy proves to be as disastrous as her 2020 run, these preliminary polls could be the high water mark for Democrats, though one that was always a mirage.
If this trend holds, she’s cooked:
She’s cooked. https://t.co/vAOYTLUxiD
— Election Wizard (@ElectionWiz) July 23, 2024
Stay focused, Republicans. Nineteen percent have no opinion of her right now. That's bound to change if the GOP can nail her on policy and her record.
